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Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market

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  • Peter Chinloy

Abstract

A mortgage pricing model is developed when a borrower goes through a series of distress states, including delinquency, long-term nonpayment and ultimate default. These steps are sequential, and depend on prices and alternatives faced by the borrower. The multistate default model is applied to the mortgage market in the United Kingdom. As a byproduct, a pricing structure for the U.K. endowment mortgage, which combines a good and a life insurance policy, is developed. Income and liquidity constraints are shown to affect the decision to keep a mortgage current in different states of distress. Solvent borrowers may thus keep their mortgages current, even when equity is negative. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Chinloy, 1995. "Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 401-420.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:23:y:1995:i:4:p:401-420
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vassilis Lekkas & John M. Quigley & Robert Order, 1993. "Loan Loss Severity and Optimal Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 353-371.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1396, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. João Rebelo & José Vaz Caldas, 2010. "Default Mortgage Profile: A Micro Analysis Of The Portuguese Case," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(1), pages 109-125.
    3. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Income volatility and residential mortgage delinquency across the EU," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 153-177, September.
    4. Danis, Michelle A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2008. "The delinquency of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 67-90.
    5. repec:bap:journl:170404 is not listed on IDEAS

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