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Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU countries

  • Luis Diaz-Serrano

    ()

    (National University of Ireland Maynooth, IZA Bonn, CREB Barcelona)

We investigate the socio-economic determinants of mortgage delinquency in 12 EU countries and observe that income volatility significantly increases the mortgage delinquency risk. This pattern even holds for borrowers with higher-income profiles if volatility in income is high enough. From this result we can draw the following conclusions i) mortgage protection insurance policies might be failing to cover those borrowers most in need ii) the existence of credit market imperfections, and iii) the inability for a number of borrowers most at income risk to accumulate precautionary savings in order to meet mortgage payments when shocks in income arise.

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File URL: http://repec.maynoothuniversity.ie/mayecw-files/N1530205.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n1530205.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1530205
Contact details of provider: Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
Fax: 353-1-7083934
Web page: http://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/economics-finance-and-accounting

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  1. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September.
  2. Ross, Stephen L. & Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 2004. "Redlining, the Community Reinvestment Act, and private mortgage insurance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 278-297, March.
  3. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
  5. Stephen L Ross, 2000. "Mortgage Lending, Sample Selection and Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 581-621.
  6. Kerry D. Vandell & Thomas Thibodeau, 1985. "Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 292-316.
  7. Arrondel, L., 2000. "Risk Management and Wealth Accumulation Behavior in France," DELTA Working Papers 2000-18, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  8. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Labor income uncertainty, skewness and homeownership: A panel data study for Germany and Spain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 156-176, July.
  9. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
  10. Gwilym Pryce & Margaret Keoghan, 2002. "Unemployment insurance for mortgage borrowers: is it viable and does it cover those most in need?," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 87-114, April.
  11. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "On the Negative Relationship between Labor Income Uncertainty and Homeownership: Risk Aversion vs. Credit Constraints," IZA Discussion Papers 1208, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Hartog, Joop & Vijverberg, Wim P., 2002. "Do Wages Really Compensate for Risk Aversion and Skewness Affection?," IZA Discussion Papers 426, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
  14. Piet M.A. Eichholtz, 1995. "Regional Economic Stability and Mortgage Default Risk in the Netherlands," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 421-439.
  15. Pryce, Gwilym, 2002. "Theory and Estimation of the Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance Decision," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 216-34, May.
  16. Richard Anderson & James VanderHoff, 1999. "Mortgage Default Rates and Borrower Race," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 279-290.
  17. Joop Hartog & Erik Plug & Luis Diaz Serrano & Jose Vieira, 2003. "Risk compensation in wages – a replication," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 639-647, July.
  18. Robst, John & Deitz, Richard & McGoldrick, KimMarie, 1999. "Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 219-229, March.
  19. Peter Chinloy, 1995. "Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 401-420.
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