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Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU countries

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  • Luis Diaz-Serrano

    (National University of Ireland Maynooth, IZA Bonn, CREB Barcelona)

Abstract

We investigate the socio-economic determinants of mortgage delinquency in 12 EU countries and observe that income volatility significantly increases the mortgage delinquency risk. This pattern even holds for borrowers with higher-income profiles if volatility in income is high enough. From this result we can draw the following conclusions i) mortgage protection insurance policies might be failing to cover those borrowers most in need ii) the existence of credit market imperfections, and iii) the inability for a number of borrowers most at income risk to accumulate precautionary savings in order to meet mortgage payments when shocks in income arise.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Diaz-Serrano, 2005. "Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU countries," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1530205, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1530205
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    Cited by:

    1. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    2. Avram, Silvia, 2020. "Labour market flexibility and unemployment duration: evidence from the UK," ISER Working Paper Series 2020-11, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Scott Drewianka, 2010. "Cross‐Sectional Variation In Individuals' Earnings Instability," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(2), pages 291-326, June.
    4. McCarthy, Yvonne, 2014. "Dis-entangling the mortgage arrears crisis: The rolw of the labour market, income volatility and housing equity," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Luca Barbaglia & Sebastiano Manzan & Elisa Tosetti, 2023. "Forecasting Loan Default in Europe with Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 569-596.
    6. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Raya, Josep Maria, 2011. "Is there Descriminatory Mortgage Pricing against Immigrants in the Spanish Lending Market?," Working Papers 2072/151811, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    7. Ashton, John K. & Hudson, Robert S., 2017. "The price, quality and distribution of mortgage payment protection insurance: A hedonic pricing approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 242-255.
    8. M. Dietsch & C. Welter-Nicol, 2014. "Do LTV and DSTI caps make banks more resilient?," Débats économiques et financiers 13, Banque de France.
    9. Tomasz Korol & Anestis K. Fotiadis, 2022. "Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 407-438, June.
    10. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschova, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2009. "Mortgage Indebtedness and Household Financial Distress," IZA Discussion Papers 4631, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Tomasz Korol, 2021. "Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, March.
    12. Tomasz Korol, 2024. "Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 51(3), pages 279-302, September.
    13. Tomasz Korol, 2021. "Evaluation of the Macro- and Micro-Economic Factors Affecting the Financial Energy of Households," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-14, June.
    14. Pfalz Reimar, 2019. "Two Approaches to Examine the Impact of Different Credit Default Indicators on Real Estate Loans," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 7(1), pages 190-215, January.
    15. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    16. Browne, Frank & Conefrey, Thomas & Kennedy, Gerard, 2013. "Understanding Irish house price movements - a user cost of capital approach," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Borgoni, Riccardo & Michelangeli, Alessandra & Pirola, Federica, 2018. "Residential Satisfaction for a Continuum of Households: Evidence from European Countries," GLO Discussion Paper Series 190, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Jian Chen & Jin Xiang & Tyler T. Yang, 2018. "Re-Default Risk of Modified Mortgages," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40.
    19. Zinovyeva, E. G. & Balynskaya, N. R. & Koptyakova, S. V. & Akhmetzianova, O.O., 2020. "Analysis of the residential mortgage market in the Ural Federal District," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 6(1), pages 5-13.
    20. Silvia Avram & Mike Brewer & Paul Fisher & Laura Fumagalli, 2022. "Household Earnings and Income Volatility in the UK, 2009–2017," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 345-369, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income volatility; mortgage delinquency; mortgage insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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