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Les Français sont-ils prudents ? Patrimoine et risque sur les revenus des ménages

  • Luc Arrondel

    (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris)

  • Hector Calvo Pardo

    (School of Social Sciences - Economics division - University of Southampton)

Le motif d'épargne de précaution a été modélisé initialement par Leland (1968), Sandmo (1970) ou Drèze & Modigliani (1972) et renouvelé par Kimball (1993). La quantification de cette prudence des épargnants face à un risque de revenu exogène dans les comportements d'épargne a fait l'objet d'une abondante littérature empirique qui est cependant loin d'aboutir à un consensus. Pour résumer, d'un côté les méthodes de simulation calibrant les modèles théoriques sur l'économie réelle aboutissent à une part du patrimoine de précaution de l'ordre de 50% du total alors que de l'autre, les travaux économétriques estiment cette proportion entre 1% et 20%. L'objectif principal de ce travail était de quantifier le motif de précaution des épargnants français face à des risques portant sur leurs revenus futurs. Le travail empirique a été effectué à partir des données de l'enquête "Patrimoine 2004" de l'Insee. Les mesures de ces aléas étaient subjectives, directement anticipées par un membre du ménage pour les 5 années à venir. Elles concernaient d'une part la probabilité de perdre son emploi, d'autre part les évolutions possibles du revenu. Nous avons montré que le motif d'épargne de précaution reste limité chez les français. Bien qu'elle dépende de la nature de la richesse envisagée, de la mesure des risques de revenu futur et de la méthode d'estimation, la part du patrimoine de précaution dépasse en effet rarement 10% de la richesse, financière ou autre.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00585994
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