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Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns

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  • Thomas M. Springer
  • Neil G. Waller

Abstract

The length of time that residential mortgages remain in delinquency prior to foreclosure is examined using an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model and a database of 207 foreclosed conventional and Veteran's Administration (VA) mortgages. The results suggest that the primary factors influencing the timing of the lender's foreclosure decision are the borrower's equity position and the erosion of that position with continuing delinquency. Borrower bankruptcy and VA guarantees also lengthen the delinquency period. Delinquency periods for fixed rate mortgages (FRM) decrease when the market interest rate increases. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Springer & Neil G. Waller, 1993. "Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 27-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:21:y:1993:i:1:p:27-46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Glower & Donald R. Haurin & Patric H. Hendershott, 1995. "Selling Price and Selling Time: The Impact of Seller Motivation," NBER Working Papers 5071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 255-269.
    3. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 125-137.
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    7. Thomas J. Miceli & C.F. Sirmans, 1994. "Reverse Mortgages and Borrower Maintenance Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 433-450.
    8. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 255-269.
    9. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 125-137.
    10. Asabere, Paul K & Huffman, Forrest E & Johnson, Rose L, 1996. "Contract Expiration and Sales Price," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 255-262, November.
    11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1991. "Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Chen & Yongheng Deng, 2013. "Commercial Mortgage Workout Strategy and Conditional Default Probability: Evidence from Special Serviced CMBS Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, pages 609-632.
    2. Cunningham, Chris & Gerardi, Kristopher S. & Shen, Yannan, 2017. "Fracking and Mortgage Default," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Bart Lambrecht & William Perraudin & Stephen Satchell, 1996. "Time to Default in the U.K. Mortgage Market," Archive Working Papers 016, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    4. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 835-853.
    5. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William & Satchell, Stephen, 1997. "Time to default in the UK mortgage market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 485-499, October.
    6. Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Elul, Ronel, 2006. "Bankruptcy exemptions, credit history, and the mortgage market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 171-188, January.
    7. Chintal Desai & Gregory Elliehausen & Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2013. "Effects of Bankruptcy Exemptions and Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Rates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 391-415, October.

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