IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v49y2021is2p395-427.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How do Interest Rate Changes Affect Mortgage Curtailments? Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Weida Kuang
  • Chunlin Liu
  • Qun Wu
  • Hongchao Zeng

Abstract

This study uses a unique data set of adjustable‐rate mortgages in China to investigate the effect of interest rate changes on mortgage curtailments. A distributed lag model shows that on average, the cumulative curtailment over four months increases by about RMB 1,856 in response to a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates. Further analyses show that the degree of responsiveness of mortgage curtailments depends on the direction of the interest rate changes: curtailments are more responsive to interest rate increases than to decreases. We also find significant heterogeneity in borrowers’ curtailment responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Weida Kuang & Chunlin Liu & Qun Wu & Hongchao Zeng, 2021. "How do Interest Rate Changes Affect Mortgage Curtailments? Evidence from China," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 395-427, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:49:y:2021:i:s2:p:395-427
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12285
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12285
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1540-6229.12285?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiang Fu & Michael Lacour-Little & Kerry D. Vandell, 1997. "Retiring Early: an Empirical Analysis of the Mortgage Curtailment Decision," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 97-09, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    2. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    3. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2013. "Cognitive Abilities and Household Financial Decision Making," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-207, January.
    5. Roberto G. Quercia & Anthony Pennington-Cross & Chao Yue Tian, 2012. "Mortgage Default and Prepayment Risks among Moderate- and Low-Income Households," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40, pages 159-198, December.
    6. Brahima Coulibaly & Geng Li, 2009. "Choice of Mortgage Contracts: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 659-673, December.
    7. Seeun Jung, 2015. "Does education affect risk aversion? Evidence from the British education reform," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2924-2938, June.
    8. Levhari, David & Weiss, Yoram, 1974. "The Effect of Risk on the Investment in Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 950-963, December.
    9. Yan Chang & Abdullah Yavas, 2009. "Do Borrowers Make Rational Choices on Points and Refinancing?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 635-658, December.
    10. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Zhang, Yunqi, 2017. "How does working in a finance profession affect mortgage delinquency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Campbell, Tim S & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1983. "The Determinants of Default on Insured Conventional Residential Mortgage Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1569-1581, December.
    12. Jan K. Brueckner & Kangoh Lee, 2017. "Optimal Sharing of Interest-Rate Risk in Mortgage Contracts: The Effects of Potential Prepayment and Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(3), pages 761-784, July.
    13. Xun Bian & Abdullah Yavas, 2013. "Prepayment Penalty as a Screening Mechanism for Default and Prepayment Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 193-224, March.
    14. Cunningham, Donald F & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1990. "The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1687-1703, December.
    15. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-392, June.
    16. David A. Love, 2010. "The Effects of Marital Status and Children on Savings and Portfolio Choice," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 385-432, January.
    17. McCollum, Meagan N. & Lee, Hong & Pace, R. Kelley, 2015. "Deleveraging and mortgage curtailment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 60-75.
    18. Yongheng Deng & Della Zheng & Changfeng Ling, 2005. "An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 117-136, September.
    19. Sunden, Annika E & Surette, Brian J, 1998. "Gender Differences in the Allocation of Assets in Retirement Savings Plans," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 207-211, May.
    20. James VanderHoff, 1996. "Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgage Termination, Option Values and Local Market Conditions: An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 379-406, September.
    21. Green, Jerry & Shoven, John B, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59, February.
    22. Che-Chun Lin & Ting-Heng Chu & Larry J. Prather & Perry Wang, 2005. "Mortgage Curtailment and Default," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 95-109.
    23. Sumit Agarwal & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4205-4230, December.
    24. Peter Chinloy, 1993. "Elective Mortgage Prepayment: Termination and Curtailment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 313-332, September.
    25. Nikolai Roussanov & Pavel G. Savor, 2012. "Status, Marriage, and Managers' Attitudes To Risk," NBER Working Papers 17904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Lin, Che-Chun & Yang, Tyler T., 2005. "Curtailment as a mortgage performance indicator," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 294-314, September.
    27. Shaw, Kathryn L, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Risk Aversion and Income Growth," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(4), pages 626-653, October.
    28. Rachel Croson & Uri Gneezy, 2009. "Gender Differences in Preferences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 448-474, June.
    29. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    30. Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri, 2012. "Strong Evidence for Gender Differences in Risk Taking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 50-58.
    31. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deng, Yongheng & Gu, Quanlin & He, Jia, 2021. "Reinforcement learning and mortgage partial prepayment behavior," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    3. McCollum, Meagan N. & Lee, Hong & Pace, R. Kelley, 2015. "Deleveraging and mortgage curtailment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 60-75.
    4. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "An empirical analysis of home equity loan and line performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 444-469, October.
    5. Amromin, Gene & Huang, Jennifer & Sialm, Clemens, 2007. "The tradeoff between mortgage prepayments and tax-deferred retirement savings," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 2014-2040, November.
    6. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    7. Stark, Oded & Zawojska, Ewa, 2015. "Gender differentiation in risk-taking behavior: On the relative risk aversion of single men and single women," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 83-87.
    8. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1996. "The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 235-261, June.
    9. Ahmad, F. & Hambly, B.M. & Ledger, S., 2018. "A stochastic partial differential equation model for the pricing of mortgage-backed securities," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(11), pages 3778-3806.
    10. J. Francois Outreville, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Risk Behavior, and Demand for Insurance: A Survey," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 158-186.
    11. Ruben Cox & Dirk Brounen & Peter Neuteboom, 2015. "Financial Literacy, Risk Aversion and Choice of Mortgage Type by Households," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 74-112, January.
    12. Thomas M. Springer & Neil G. Waller, 1993. "Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 27-46, March.
    13. Kiss, Hubert J. & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Rosa-Garcia, Alfonso, 2014. "Do women panic more than men? An experimental study of financial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 40-51.
    14. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Marriage as insurance: job protection and job insecurity in France," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1157-1190, December.
    15. Johnston, David W. & Kassenboehmer, Sonja C. & Shields, Michael A., 2016. "Financial decision-making in the household: Exploring the importance of survey respondent, health, cognitive ability and personality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PA), pages 42-61.
    16. Keys, Benjamin J. & Pope, Devin G. & Pope, Jaren C., 2016. "Failure to refinance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 482-499.
    17. Czibor, Eszter & Claussen, Jörg & van Praag, Mirjam, 2019. "Women in a men’s world: Risk taking in an online card game community," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 62-89.
    18. Martin Flodén & Matilda Kilström & Jósef Sigurdsson & Roine Vestman, 2021. "Household Debt and Monetary Policy: Revealing the Cash-Flow Channel," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1742-1771.
    19. Reiter-Gavish, Liron & Qadan, Mahmoud & Yagil, Joseph, 2021. "Financial advice: Who Exactly Follows It?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 244-258.
    20. Halko, Marja-Liisa & Kaustia, Markku & Alanko, Elias, 2012. "The gender effect in risky asset holdings," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 66-81.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:49:y:2021:i:s2:p:395-427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.