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Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgage Termination, Option Values and Local Market Conditions: An Empirical Analysis

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  • James VanderHoff

Abstract

This paper analyzes the probabilities of prepayment or default for Fixed Rate Mortgages (FRMs) and Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs). Using data from the period 1985–1992, the analysis indicates that the likelihood of prepayment of thirty year FRMs was determined primarily by house price appreciation and personal income growth and the likelihood of prepayment of fifteen year FRMs was determined primarily by interest rate changes. ARMs were prepaid less frequently than FRMs, were less likely to be prepaid when interest rates declined and defaulted more often than FRMs. The analysis provides evidence that ARM holders are less mobile than FRM holders.

Suggested Citation

  • James VanderHoff, 1996. "Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgage Termination, Option Values and Local Market Conditions: An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 379-406, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:24:y:1996:i:3:p:379-406
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00696
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Weller & Kate Sabatini, 2007. "The Financial Vulnerability of Families," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 72-98.
    2. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "An empirical analysis of home equity loan and line performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 444-469, October.
    3. Anthony Pennington‐Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed‐Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426, September.
    4. Weida Kuang & Chunlin Liu & Qun Wu & Hongchao Zeng, 2021. "How do Interest Rate Changes Affect Mortgage Curtailments? Evidence from China," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 395-427, September.
    5. Masaki Mori & Julian Diaz III & Alan J. Ziobrowski, 2009. "Why Do Borrowers Choose Adjustable-Rate Mortgages over Fixed-Rate Mortgages? : A Behavioral Investigation," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 98-120.
    6. John P. Harding, 1997. "Estimating Borrower Mobility from Observed Prepayments," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 347-371, September.
    7. Philippe Bélanger, 2012. "Assessment of fixed rate mortgage implied insurance cost: Method and ex-post Swiss market analysis," ERES eres2012_372, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2006. "Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 215-240.
    9. Sprecher, C. R. & Willman, Elliott, 2000. "The Role of the Initial Discount in the Pricing of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 64-75, March.
    10. Lanot, Gauthier & Leece, David, 2010. "The Performance of UK Securitized Subprime Mortgage Debt: ‘Idiosyncratic’ Behaviour or Mortgage Design?," MPRA Paper 27137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nai Jia Lee, 2003. "Expected Return of Housing and Mortgage Termination," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 75-101.
    12. Kate Sabatini & Christian E. Weller, 2007. "Changes in Homeowners’ Financial Security during the Recent Housing and Mortgage Boom," Working Papers wp125, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    13. Man Cho, 2007. "180 Years’ Evolution of the US Mortgage Banking System: Lessons for Emerging Mortgage Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 171-212.

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