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The delinquency of subprime mortgages

  • Danis, Michelle A.
  • Pennington-Cross, Anthony

This paper focuses on understanding the determinants of the performance of subprime mortgages. A growing body of literature recognizes the substantial lag between the time that a borrower stops making payments on a mortgage and the termination of the loan. The duration of this lag and the method by which the delinquency is ultimately terminated play a critical role in the costs borne by both borrower and lender. Using nested and multinomial logit, we find that delinquency and default are sensitive to current economic conditions and housing markets. Credit scores and loan characteristics also play important roles.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V7T-4PW05BH-2/2/c485b69f690130746b273b8a3358b817
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.

Volume (Year): 60 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
Pages: 67-90

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:60:y:2008:i:1-2:p:67-90
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus

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  1. Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2003. "Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 279-301, November.
  2. D. McFadden & J. Hausman, 1981. "Specification Tests for the Multinominal Logit Model," Working papers 292, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Brent W. Ambrose & Charles A. Capone, . "The Hazard Rates of First and Second Default," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 301, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2004. "Optimal Stopping and Losses on Subprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 115-131, November.
  5. Paul S. Calem & Kevin Gillen & Susan Wachter, 2004. "The Neighborhood Distribution of Subprime Mortgage Lending," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 393-410, December.
  6. Peter Chinloy, 1995. "Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 401-420.
  7. Koppelman, Frank S. & Wen, Chieh-Hua, 1998. "Alternative nested logit models: structure, properties and estimation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 289-298, June.
  8. Joseph Nichols & Anthony Pennington-Cross & Anthony Yezer, 2004. "Borrower Self-Selection, Underwriting Costs, and Subprime Mortgage Credit Supply," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 197-219, November.
  9. Cowan, Adrian M. & Cowan, Charles D., 2004. "Default correlation: An empirical investigation of a subprime lender," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 753-771, April.
  10. Richard A. Phillips & Eric M. Rosenblatt, 1997. "The Legal Environment and the Choice of Default Resolution Alternatives: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(2), pages 145-154.
  11. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-25, August.
  12. Michelle H. Dreiman & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2004. "Alternative Methods of Increasing the Precision of Weighted Repeat Sales House Prices Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 299-317, 05.
  13. Marsha J. Courchane & Brian J. Surette & Peter M. Zorn, 2004. "Subprime Borrowers: Mortgage Transitions and Outcomes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 365-392, December.
  14. Small, Kenneth A & Hsiao, Cheng, 1985. "Multinomial Logit Specification Tests," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 619-27, October.
  15. Lawrence, Edward C & Arshadi, Nasser, 1995. "A Multinomial Logit Analysis of Problem Loan Resolution Choices in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 202-16, February.
  16. Lambrecht, Bart M & Perraudin, William R M & Satchell, Steven, 2003. " Mortgage Default and Possession under Recourse: A Competing Hazards Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 425-42, June.
  17. T. Gregory Morton, 1975. "A Discriminant Function Analysis of Residential Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 73-88.
  18. George M. Furstenberg & R. Jeffrey Green, 1974. "Estimation of Delinquency Risk for Home Mortgage Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 5-19.
  19. James B. Kau & Taewon Kim, 1994. "Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 539-551.
  20. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-56.
  21. Ko Wang & Leslie Young & Yuqing Zhou, 2002. "Nondiscriminating Foreclosure and Voluntary Liquidating Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 959-985.
  22. Paul S. Calem & Susan M. Wachter, 1999. "Community Reinvestment and Credit Risk: Evidence from an Affordable-Home-Loan Program," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 105-134.
  23. Gary L. Hunt, 2000. "Alternative Nested Logit Model Structures and the Special Case of Partial Degeneracy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 89-113.
  24. Ambrose, Brent W & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Single-Family Foreclosure Alternatives," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 105-20, September.
  25. Brent W. Ambrose & Charles A. Capone, 1998. "Modeling the Conditional Probability of Foreclosure in the Context of Single-Family Mortgage Default Resolutions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 391-429.
  26. William P. Alexander & Scott D. Grimshaw & Grant R. McQueen & Barrett A. Slade, 2002. "Some Loans Are More Equal than Others: Third-Party Originations and Defaults in the Subprime Mortgage Industry," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 667-697.
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