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Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version

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The financial crisis has brought the interaction between housing prices and household borrowing into the limelight of economic policy debate. This paper examines the nexus of housing prices and credit in Norway within a structural vector equilibrium correcting model (SVECM) over the period 1986q2- 2008q4. The results establish a two-way interaction in the long-run, so that higher housing prices lead to a credit expansion, which in turn puts an upward pressure on housing prices. Interest rates influence housing prices indirectly through the credit channel. Furthermore, households' expectations about future development in teir own income as well as in the Norwegian economy have a significant impact on housing price growth. Dynamic simulations show how shocks are propagated and amplified. When we augment the model to include the supply side, these effects are dampened. The paper is an extended version of Anundsen and Jansen (2013b) and it encompasses a previous Discussion Paper 651 (Anundsen and Jansen, 2011).

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  • André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:756
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    Cited by:

    1. Ragna Alstadheim & Ørjan Robstad & Nikka Husom Vonen, 2017. "Financial imbalances, crisis probability and monetary policy in Norway," Working Paper 2017/21, Norges Bank.
    2. Barakova, Irina & Calem, Paul S. & Wachter, Susan M., 2014. "Borrowing constraints during the housing bubble," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 4-20.
    3. André K. Anundsen & Karsten Gerdrup & Frank Hansen & Kasper Kragh‐Sørensen, 2016. "Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1291-1311, November.
    4. Glennie Lauren Moore & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2018. "The drivers of household indebtedness re-considered: an empirical evaluation of competing arguments on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness in OECD countries," Working Papers PKWP1803, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    5. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2017. "Expenditure cascades, low interest rates or property booms? Determinants of household debt in OECD countries," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 18276, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    6. Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2017. "House prices and capital inflows in Spain during the boom: Evidence from a cointegrated VAR and a structural Bayesian VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 22-28.
    7. Rima Turk, 2015. "Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden," IMF Working Papers 15/276, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2014. "Macro effects of capital requirements and macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 77-93.
    9. Anundsen, André K. & Jansen, Eilev S., 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 192-212.
    10. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Merike Kukk, 2017. "Asymmetries in the interaction between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2017-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 25 May 2017.
    11. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:642-:d:133972 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Basten, Christoph & Koch, Catherine, 2015. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2018. "Housing prices and mortgage credit in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 117, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    14. repec:bis:bisbpc:94-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    16. Ådne Cappelen & Torbjørn Eika, 2017. "Immigration and the Dutch disease. A counterfactual analysis of the Norwegian resource boom 2004-2013," Discussion Papers 860, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    17. repec:eee:finsta:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:167-185 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Damen, Sven & Vastmans, Frank & Buyst, Erik, 2016. "The effect of mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-29.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing prices; Household borrowing; Financial accelerator; Dynamic simulations;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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