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The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case

  • Gimeno, Ricardo
  • Martí­nez-Carrascal, Carmen

This paper looks at recent developments in house purchase loans and house prices in Spain and the linkages between them. It aims at identifying deviations of these variables from their equilibrium levels, and for this purpose, we estimate a vector error-correction model. The results show that both variables are interdependent in the long-run and that both variables were above their equilibrium level by the end of the sample period (2009:Q1). The paper also offers insight into how overvaluation (overindebtedness) in house prices can lead to a false sense of no overindebtedness (house prices overvaluation).

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 1849-1855

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:8:p:1849-1855
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  2. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
  3. Niinimäki, J.-P., 2009. "Does collateral fuel moral hazard in banking?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 514-521, March.
  4. De Haas, Ralph & Ferreira, Daniel & Taci, Anita, 2010. "What determines the composition of banks' loan portfolios? Evidence from transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 388-398, February.
  5. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0307, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  7. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong," Working Papers 122003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Delgado, J. & Salas, V. & Saurina, J., 2007. "Joint size and ownership specialization in bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3563-3583, December.
  9. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, 07.
  10. Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Wennemo, Tom, 2010. "Endogenous housing market cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 557-567, March.
  11. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case," Discussion Papers 29, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  12. Luci Ellis, 2005. "Disinflation and the dynamics of mortgage debt," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 5-20 Bank for International Settlements.
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