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Household borrowing and consumption in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen Martínez-Carrascal

    () (Banco de España)

  • Ana del Río

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper aims at analysing the impact of household borrowing on consumption. These variables are modelled jointly in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where labour income, wealth variables and nominal interest rates are also included. The main estimation result is that deviations of borrowing from its long-run trend have a significant impact on consumption: when lending is above (below) its long-run level, future consumption contracts (expands). This evidence is also, found in a simpler model in which consumption is not modelled explicitly. In addition, when consumption departs from its long-run level, it seems to be an indicator of changes in future labour income.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Martínez-Carrascal & Ana del Río, 2004. "Household borrowing and consumption in Spain," Working Papers 0421, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0421
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/04/Fic/dt0421e.pdf
    File Function: First version, December 2004
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristian-Florin Dananau, 2015. "Non-governmental credit in Romania: a VECM-based approach," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(1), pages 87-106, March.
    2. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    3. Kukk, Merike, 2016. "How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 764-786.
    4. Béchir Bouzid, 2010. "Titrisation des emprunts hypothécaires et bulle immobilière aux États-Unis : les origines d’une débâcle," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 97(2), pages 101-142.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    household debt; consumption; error correction;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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