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Household borrowing and consumption in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen Martínez-Carrascal

    (Banco de España)

  • Ana del Río

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper aims at analysing the impact of household borrowing on consumption. These variables are modelled jointly in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where labour income, wealth variables and nominal interest rates are also included. The main estimation result is that deviations of borrowing from its long-run trend have a significant impact on consumption: when lending is above (below) its long-run level, future consumption contracts (expands). This evidence is also, found in a simpler model in which consumption is not modelled explicitly. In addition, when consumption departs from its long-run level, it seems to be an indicator of changes in future labour income.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Martínez-Carrascal & Ana del Río, 2004. "Household borrowing and consumption in Spain," Working Papers 0421, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0421
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/04/Fic/dt0421e.pdf
    File Function: First version, December 2004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristian-Florin Dananau, 2015. "Non-governmental credit in Romania: a VECM-based approach," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(1), pages 87-106, March.
    2. Roberto Blanco & Fernando Restoy, 2011. "Have Real Interest Rates Really Fallen That Much In Spain?," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 19(1), pages 153-170, Spring.
    3. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    4. Béchir Bouzid, 2010. "Titrisation des emprunts hypothécaires et bulle immobilière aux États-Unis : les origines d’une débâcle," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 97(2), pages 101-142.
    5. Kukk, Merike, 2016. "How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 764-786.
    6. Juan Ayuso & Roberto Blanco & Fernando Restoy, 2006. "House prices and real interest rates in Spain," Occasional Papers 0608, Banco de España.
    7. Fernando Nieto, 2007. "The determinants of household credit in Spain," Working Papers 0716, Banco de España.
    8. Ricardo Gimeno & Carmen Martínez-Carrascal, 2006. "The interaction between house prices and loans for house purchase. The Spanish case," Working Papers 0605, Banco de España.
    9. Gimeno, Ricardo & Martí­nez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1849-1855, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    household debt; consumption; error correction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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