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How Did Household Indebtedness Hamper Consumption during the Recession? Evidence from Micro Data

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  • Merike Kukk

    () (Tallinn University of Technology)

Abstract

The paper investigates the extent to which household indebtedness suppressed consumption during the economic downturn in 2008-2009. The paper uses a unique quarterly panel dataset containing financial information on over 100,000 individuals. The dataset covers the period 2005-2011, when there were large changes in credit volumes, income and consumption in Estonia, a new EU member country. The estimations show that indebtedness measured by the debt-to-income ratio and the debt service ratio hampers consumption over the whole business cycle. The negative impact of the debt service ratio is, however, substantially stronger during the recession than in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, while the negative effect of the debt-to-income ratio is relatively stable over the sample period. The findings suggest that household indebtedness is amplifying the recession and the debt repayment burden indicates the mechanism which is at work.

Suggested Citation

  • Merike Kukk, 2015. "How Did Household Indebtedness Hamper Consumption during the Recession? Evidence from Micro Data," a/ Working Papers Series 1505, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
  • Handle: RePEc:ais:wpaper:1505
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    Cited by:

    1. Andre Veski & Kaire Põder, 2015. "Primary School Choice in Tallinn: Data and Simulations," TUT Economic Research Series 20, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    2. Karin Kondor-Tabun & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "EU Cohesion Policy Funding in Estonia: Background, Developments and Challenges," TUT Economic Research Series 21, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    3. Kristjan Liivamägi & Tarvo Vaarmets & Tõnn Talpsepp, 2014. "Masters of the Stock Market," TUT Economic Research Series 16, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    4. Kukk, Merike, 2016. "How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 764-786.
    5. Youngjoo Choi & Jong Chil Son, 2016. "Nonlinear Effect of Household Debt on Consumption: Evidence from Household-level Panel Data in Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1083-1094.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    household indebtedness; debt repayment burden; debt-to-income ratio; amplification effect; recession.;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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