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How Did Household Indebtedness Hamper Consumption during the Recession? Evidence from Micro Data

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  • Merike Kukk

Abstract

The paper investigates the extent to which household indebtedness suppressed consumption during the economic downturn in 2008-2009. The paper uses a unique quarterly panel dataset containing financial information on over 100,000 individuals. The dataset covers the period 2005-2011, when there were large changes in credit volumes, income and consumption in Estonia, a new EU member country. The estimations show that indebtedness measured by the debt-to-income ratio and the debt service ratio hampers consumption over the whole business cycle. The negative impact of the debt service ratio is, however, substantially stronger during the recession than in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, while the negative effect of the debt-to-income ratio shows a weakening trend over the sample period. The findings suggest that household indebtedness is amplifying the recession and the debt repayment burden indicates the mechanism which is at work.

Suggested Citation

  • Merike Kukk, 2014. "How Did Household Indebtedness Hamper Consumption during the Recession? Evidence from Micro Data," TUT Economic Research Series 14, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:ttu:tuteco:14
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    1. Rutger Teulings & Bram Wouterse & Kan Ji, 2019. "Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption," CPB Discussion Paper 395.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Merike Kukk, 2019. "Are there asymmetries in the interaction between housing prices and housing credit? Evidence from a country with rapid credit accumulation," Working Papers 2019/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Yunchao Cai & Selamah Abdullah Yusof & Ruzita Bt Mohd Amin & Mohd Nahar Mohd Arshad, 2021. "The Multi-dimensional Effect of Household Debt on Urban Individual Well-Being in Klang Valley Malaysia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 23-44, November.
    4. Philip Du Caju & Guillaume Périlleux & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2021. "A Bigger House at the Cost of an Empty Fridge? The Effect of Households' Indebtedness on Their Consumption: Micro-Evidence Using Belgian HFCS Data," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2021008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Tarvo Vaarmets & Kristjan Liivamägi & Tõnn Talpsepp, 2014. "The brilliant mind of investors," TUT Economic Research Series 15, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    6. Philip Caju & Guillaume Périlleux & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2023. "A bigger house at the cost of an empty stomach? The effect of households’ indebtedness on their consumption: micro-evidence using Belgian HFCS data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 291-333, March.
    7. Merike Kukk, 2019. "Debt repayment problems: short-term and long-term implications for spending," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 715-740, June.
    8. Can Xu & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2023. "Does Household Borrowing Reduce the Trade Balance? Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 759-787, September.
    9. Karin Kondor-Tabun & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "EU Cohesion Policy Funding in Estonia: Background, Developments and Challenges," TUT Economic Research Series 21, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    10. Apostolos Fasianos & Reamonn Lydon, 2022. "Do households with debt cut back their consumption more? New evidence from the United Kingdom," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 737-760, July.
    11. Sang-yoon Song, 2020. "Leverage, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Heterogeneity of the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from South Korea," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1213-1244, December.
    12. Mairead Roiste & Apostolos Fasianos & Robert Kirkby & Fang Yao, 2021. "Are Housing Wealth Effects Asymmetric in Booms and Busts?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 578-628, May.
    13. Xuejun Jin & Xue Zhou & Xiaolan Yang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between household debt and consumption?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(5), pages 4783-4806, December.
    14. Rutger Teulings & Bram Wouterse & Kan Ji, 2023. "Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2213-2239, November.
    15. Youngjoo Choi & Jong Chil Son, 2016. "Nonlinear Effect of Household Debt on Consumption: Evidence from Household-level Panel Data in Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1083-1094.
    16. Jonathan Kearns & Mike Major & David Norman, 2021. "How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 313-330, September.
    17. Tomasz Korol & Anestis K. Fotiadis, 2022. "Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 407-438, June.
    18. Andre Veski & Kaire Põder, 2015. "Primary School Choice in Tallinn: Data and Simulations," TUT Economic Research Series 20, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    19. Rutger Teulings & Bram Wouterse & Kan Ji, 2019. "Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption," CPB Discussion Paper 395, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Suhal Kusairi & Suriyani Muhamad & M Musdholifah & Shu-Chen Chang, 2019. "Labor Market and Household Debt in Asia Pacific Countries: Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Data Analysis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-15, June.
    21. Yanyan Huang & Fuzhong Chen, 2022. "The Impact of Household Debt on Food Expenditure and Its Mechanism in Urban China," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 466-475, September.
    22. Kristjan Liivamägi & Tarvo Vaarmets & Tõnn Talpsepp, 2014. "Masters of the Stock Market," TUT Economic Research Series 16, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    23. Wang, Jianqiu & Yin, Zhichao & Jiang, Jialing, 2023. "The effect of the digital divide on household consumption in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    24. Yunchao, Cai & Abdullah Yusof, Selamah & Mohd Amin, Ruzita & Mohd Arshad, Mohd Nahar, 2020. "Household Debt and Household Spending Behavior: Evidence from Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(1), pages 111-120.

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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