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Households borrowing during a creditless recovery

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  • Jaanika Merikull

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Abstract

This paper investigates the contribution of households to the creditless recovery. We use Estonian cross-sectional microdata on households' assets, liabilities, income, expectations and intention to use credit in 2001-2010. The results indicate that (1) there was a large-scale drop in households demand for credit during the recession and sluggish recovery after the recession. (2) One third of the sluggish recovery in credit demand is explained by changed household endowments such as income reduction and lower income expectations, while two thirds is explained by changed behavioural relations such as renters taking mortgages less often and employed individuals using credit less often. (3) Changed behavioural relations explain a higher proportion of the credit demand drop in longer-term credit such as loans than in shorter-term credit such as credit card purchases. (4) 44% of households who wanted to use credit were credit constrained during the recovery and households with lower credit worthiness were more likely to apply for credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaanika Merikull, 2012. "Households borrowing during a creditless recovery," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2012-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Feb 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2012-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Donghoon Lee & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "Household Debt and Saving during the 2007 Recession," NBER Chapters,in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 273-322 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    3. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries from Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/83, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Iacoviello, Matteo & Pavan, Marina, 2013. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-238.
    8. Thomas Bauer & Mathias Sinning, 2010. "Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition for Tobit models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1569-1575.
    9. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Dahlhaus, Tatjana, 2011. "Determinants of credit-less recoveries," Working Paper Series 1358, European Central Bank.
    10. Gathergood John, 2011. "Racial Disparities in Credit Constraints in the Great Recession: Evidence from the UK," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-32, September.
    11. Duca John V. & Rosenthal Stuart S., 1993. "Borrowing Constraints, Household Debt, and Racial Discrimination in Loan Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 77-103, October.
    12. Silvia Magri, 2007. "Italian households’ debt: the participation to the debt market and the size of the loan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 401-426, November.
    13. Tullio Jappelli, 1990. "Who is Credit Constrained in the U. S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-234.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    households borrowing; business cycles; micro-econometric evidence; Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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