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Households borrowing during a creditless recovery

  • Jaanika Meriküll

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    This paper investigates the contribution of households to the creditless recovery. We use Estonian cross-sectional microdata on households' assets, liabilities, income, expectations and intention to use credit in 2001-2010. The results indicate that (1) there was a large-scale drop in households demand for credit during the recession and sluggish recovery after the recession. (2) One third of the sluggish recovery in credit demand is explained by changed household endowments such as income reduction and lower income expectations, while two thirds is explained by changed behavioural relations such as renters taking mortgages less often and employed individuals using credit less often. (3) Changed behavioural relations explain a higher proportion of the credit demand drop in longer-term credit such as loans than in shorter-term credit such as credit card purchases. (4) 44% of households who wanted to use credit were credit constrained during the recovery and households with lower credit worthiness were more likely to apply for credit.

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    File URL: http://www.eestipank.ee/sites/eestipank.ee/files/publication/en/WorkingPapers/2012/_wp_212.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number wp2012-2.

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    Date of creation: 22 Feb 2012
    Date of revision: 22 Feb 2012
    Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2012-2
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    1. Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2011. "Housing and Debt over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2011/04, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    2. Thomas Bauer & Mathias Sinning, 2010. "Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition for Tobit models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1569-1575.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl, 2010. "Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis: US vs. Europe," NBER Working Papers 16275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Duca John V. & Rosenthal Stuart S., 1993. "Borrowing Constraints, Household Debt, and Racial Discrimination in Loan Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 77-103, October.
    6. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries From Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/83, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Donghoon Lee & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Household Debt and Saving During the 2007 Recession," NBER Working Papers 16999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Dahlhaus, Tatjana, 2011. "Determinants of credit-less recoveries," Working Paper Series 1358, European Central Bank.
    11. John Gathergood, . "Racial Disparities in Credit Constraints in the Great Recession: Evidence from the UK," Discussion Papers 11/09, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    12. Silvia Magri, 2007. "Italian households’ debt: the participation to the debt market and the size of the loan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 401-426, November.
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