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Credit and recessions

  • Fabrizio Coricelli

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS, CEPR - Centre for Economic Policy Research)

  • Isabelle Roland

    ()

    (LSE - The London School of Economics and Political Science)

The paper develops a simple model on the asymmetric role of credit markets in output fluctuations. When credit markets are underdeveloped and enterprise activity is financed by trade credit, shocks may induce a break-up of credit and production chains, leading to sudden and sharp contractions. The development of a banking sector can reduce the probability of such collapses and hence plays a crucial role in softening output declines. However, the banking sector becomes a shock amplifier when shocks originate in the financial sector. Using industry-level data across a large cross-section of countries, we provide evidence in support of the model's predictions.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00469521.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00469521
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00469521
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  1. Blanchard, Olivier & Kremer, Michael R., 1997. "Disorganization," Scholarly Articles 3659691, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Raymond Fisman & Inessa Love, 2003. "Trade Credit, Financial Intermediary Development, and Industry Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 353-374, 02.
  3. Guillermo Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1992. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe; The Role of Credit," IMF Working Papers 92/64, International Monetary Fund.
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  7. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
  8. Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randall S & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," Working Paper Series rwp04-030, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
  11. Mariassunta Giannetti & Mike Burkart & Tore Ellingsen, 0. "What You Sell Is What You Lend? Explaining Trade Credit Contracts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 1261-1298.
  12. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  14. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1997. "Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 661-91.
  15. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
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  17. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram, 2008. "The real effect of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-112, January.
  18. Borja Larrain, 2006. "Do Banks Affect the Level and Composition of Industrial Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1897-1925, 08.
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