Determinants of credit-less recoveries
This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following. First, our frequency analysis confirms earlier findings that credit-less recoveries are not at all rare events. Moreover, our analysis shows that the frequency of credit-less recoveries doubles after a banking or currency crisis. Second, results from estimated panel probit models suggest that credit-less recoveries are typically preceded by large declines in economic activity and financial stress, in particular if private sector indebtedness is high and the country is reliant on foreign capital inflows. Finally, we find that the predicted probability of a credit-less recovery in central and eastern European EU Member States during the coming years varies across countries, but is relatively high in the Baltic States. JEL Classification: C23, C25, E32, E51, G01
|Date of creation:||Jun 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998.
"Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May.
- Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits; An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 97/168, International Monetary Fund.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics; The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2007. "Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery," BIS Working Papers 226, Bank for International Settlements.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006. "Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises," BIS Working Papers 221, Bank for International Settlements.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-277, July.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Martin Brown & Steven Ongena & Alexander Popov & Pinar Yeşin, 2011. "Who needs credit and who gets credit in Eastern Europe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(01), pages 93-130, January.
- Martin Brown & Steven Ongena & Alexander Popov & Pinar Yesin, 2010. "Who Needs Credit and Who Gets Credit in Eastern Europe?," Working Papers 2010-09, Swiss National Bank.
- Ongena, Steven & Popov, Alexander & Brown, Martin & Yesin, Pinar, 2012. "Who needs credit and who gets credit in Eastern Europe?," Working Paper Series 1421, European Central Bank.
- Brown, M. & Ongena, S. & Popov, A. & Yesin, P., 2010. "Who Needs Credit and Who Gets Credit in Eastern Europe?," Discussion Paper 2010-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
- Matias Braun & Borja Larrain, 2004. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-industry Evidence," Finance 0403001, EconWPA.
- Roman Liesenfeld & Guilherme Valle Moura & Jean-François Richard, 2010. "Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 486-517, August.
- Liesenfeld, Roman & Moura, Guilherme V. & Richard, Jean-François, 2009. "Determinants and dynamics of current account reversals: an empirical analysis," Economics Working Papers 2009-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Elisabetta Falcetti & Merxe Tudela, 2006. "Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 445-471, August.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Roland, Isabelle, 2011. "How do credit conditions shape economic recoveries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)