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Determinants of credit-less recoveries

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  • Bijsterbosch, Martin
  • Dahlhaus, Tatjana

Abstract

This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following. First, our frequency analysis confirms earlier findings that credit-less recoveries are not at all rare events. Moreover, our analysis shows that the frequency of credit-less recoveries doubles after a banking or currency crisis. Second, results from estimated panel probit models suggest that credit-less recoveries are typically preceded by large declines in economic activity and financial stress, in particular if private sector indebtedness is high and the country is reliant on foreign capital inflows. Finally, we find that the predicted probability of a credit-less recovery in central and eastern European EU Member States during the coming years varies across countries, but is relatively high in the Baltic States. JEL Classification: C23, C25, E32, E51, G01

Suggested Citation

  • Bijsterbosch, Martin & Dahlhaus, Tatjana, 2011. "Determinants of credit-less recoveries," Working Paper Series 1358, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111358
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, June.
    6. Roman Liesenfeld & Guilherme Valle Moura & Jean-François Richard, 2010. "Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 486-517, August.
    7. Elisabetta Falcetti & Merxe Tudela, 2006. "Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 445-471, August.
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    11. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Republic of Latvia; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/172, International Monetary Fund.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Greece; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 13/155, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Dimelis, Sophia & Giotopoulos, Ioannis & Louri, Helen, 2015. "Can firms grow without credit?: evidence from the Euro Area, 2005-2011: a quantile panel analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61157, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2014. "Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1714, European Central Bank.
    5. Katalin Bodnár & Zsolt Kovalszky & Emese Hudák, 2014. "Recovery from crises and lending," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 13(4), pages 57-85.
    6. Sugawara, Naotaka & Zalduendo, Juan, 2013. "Credit-less recoveries : neither a rare nor an insurmountable challenge," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6459, The World Bank.
    7. Grjebine, Thomas & Szczerbowicz, Urszula & Tripier, Fabien, 2018. "Corporate debt structure and economic recoveries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 77-100.
    8. Maria Siranova & Jana Kotlebova, 2015. "Possible Impact of the ECB’s Outright Purchase Programmes on Economic Growth from Individual Eurozone Countries’ Point of View," MIC 2015: Managing Sustainable Growth; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Portorož, Slovenia, 28–30 May 2015, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper.
    9. Banai, Ádám, 2016. "A banki hitelezést meghatározó tényezők - középpontban a bankok helyzete és a makrokörnyezet
      [Drivers of bank lending in Hungary - the roles of bank-specific and macro factors]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 137-161.
    10. Elod Takáts & Christian Upper, 2013. "Credit and growth after financial crises," BIS Working Papers 416, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Mahmoud Haddad & Sam Hakim, 2015. "Can Banks Lead the Economic Recovery of the Arab Spring?," Working Papers 965, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2015.
    12. Feyen, Erik & Kibuuka, Katie & Otker-Robe, Inci, 2012. "Bank deleveraging : causes, channels, and consequences for emerging market and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6086, The World Bank.
    13. Hiona Balfoussia & Dimitris Malliaropulos, 2015. "Credit-less recoveries: the role of investment-savings imbalances," Working Papers 200, Bank of Greece.
    14. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2015. "The macroeconomic impact of financial fragmentation in the euro area: Which role for credit supply?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-115.
    15. Jaanika Merikull, 2012. "Households borrowing during a creditless recovery," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2012-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Feb 2012.
    16. Olteanu, Dan, 2014. "Creditless Recovery In Eastern Europe," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 141212, National Institute of Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit-less Recoveries; Financial crises; Panel Probit Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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