Credit and growth after financial crises
We find that declining bank credit to the private sector will not necessarily constrain the economic recovery after output has bottomed out following a financial crisis. To obtain this result, we examine data from 39 financial crises, which - as the current one - were preceded by credit booms. In these crises the change in bank credit, either in real terms or relative to GDP, consistently did not correlate with growth during the first two years of the recovery. In the third and fourth year, the correlation becomes statistically significant but remains small in economic terms. The lack of association between deleveraging and the speed of recovery does not seem to arise due to limited data. In fact, our data shows that increasing competitiveness, via exchange rate depreciations, is statistically and economically significantly associated with faster recoveries. Our results contradict the current consensus that private sector deleveraging is necessarily harmful for growth.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel|
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil K, 2010.
"Will the U.S. bank recapitalization succeed? Eight lessons from Japan,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 398-417, September.
- Takeo Hoshi & Anil K Kashyap, 2008. "Will the U.S. Bank Recapitalization Succeed? Eight Lessons from Japan," NBER Working Papers 14401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2003.
"Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan,"
NBER Working Papers
9643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,"
Princeton University Press,
edition 1, number 8973.
- Morten L. Bech & Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi, 2014.
"Monetary Policy in a Downturn: Are Financial Crises Special?,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 99-119, 03.
- Morten Bech & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2012. "Monetary policy in a downturn: Are financial crises special?," BIS Working Papers 388, Bank for International Settlements.
- Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2010.
"After the fall,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 17-60.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2010. "After the Fall," NBER Working Papers 16334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2010. "Diminished Expectations, Double Dips, and External Shocks: The Decade After the Fall," MPRA Paper 24969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries from Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/83, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000.
"Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Kohler, Marion & Upper, Christian, 2009.
"Financial Crises and Economic Activity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Marion Kohler & Christian Upper, 2009. "Financial crises and economic activity," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-135.
- Thomas Philippon, 2010. "Debt Overhang and Recapitalization in Closed and Open Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 157-178, August.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
- Wako Watanabe, 2007. "Prudential Regulation and the "Credit Crunch": Evidence from Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 639-665, 03.
- Bijsterbosch, Martin & Dahlhaus, Tatjana, 2011. "Determinants of credit-less recoveries," Working Paper Series 1358, European Central Bank.
- Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.