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Debt reduction after crises

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  • Garry Tang
  • Christian Upper

Abstract

Financial crises tend to be followed by a protracted period of debt reduction in the nonfinancial private sector. We find that a period of debt reduction followed 17 out of 20 systemic banking crises that were preceded by surges in credit. Debt/GDP ratios fell by an average of 38 percentage points, returning to approximately the levels seen before the increase. If history is any guide, we should expect to see a much more significant reduction in private sector debt, particularly of households, than has so far taken place after the recent crisis. The costs of this process in forgone output are difficult to pin down, but there are reasons to believe that they need not be high provided that the banking sector problems that led to the crisis are fixed.

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  • Garry Tang & Christian Upper, 2010. "Debt reduction after crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1009e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    2. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    3. Cuerpo, Carlos & Drumond, Inês & Lendvai, Julia & Pontuch, Peter & Raciborski, Rafal, 2015. "Private sector deleveraging in Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 372-383.
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    5. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Daniel Garrote & Jimena Llopis & Javier Vallés, 2013. "Los canales del desapalancamiento del sector privado: una comparación internacional," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue NOV, pages 69-80, Noviembre.
    7. Siti Aminah Mainal, 2017. "Post Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Household Debt in Advanced Economies," GATR Journals jfbr133, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    8. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    9. Daan Steenkamp, 2010. "New Zealand’s imbalances in a cross-country context," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 73, pages 37-49, December.
    10. Cussen, Mary & O'Leary, Brídín, 2013. "Why are Irish Non-Financial Corporations so Indebted?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 104-118, January.
    11. Vratislav Izák, 2014. "Private and Public Debt," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 4-21.
    12. Martti Randveer & Lenno Uuskula & Liina Kulu, 2012. "The impact of private debt on economic growth," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 05 Jan 2012.
    13. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońcaz, 2017. "Are Major Central Banks Blinded By The Analytical Elegance Of Their Models? Possible Costs Of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 87-108, March.
    14. Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2010. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Der erste Schwung ist vorüber," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 61(2), pages 5-36.
    15. Julia Kiraly & Atila Csajbok & Mihaly Andras Kovacs, 2011. "A Policy Recipe for Successful Convergence of CESEE Countries in the Post-crisis World," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Martin Gächter & Martin Geiger & Florentin Glötzl & Helene Schuberth, 2015. "Sectoral Deleveraging in Europe and Its Economic Implications," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-23.
    18. Roland Döhrn & Philipp an de Meulen & Tobias Kitlinski & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2010. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland zur Jahresmitte 2010 - Der erste Schwung ist vorüber," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 32, 09.
    19. Don Walshe & Dermot O’Leary, 2012. "Deleveraging, Banks and Economic Recovery in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 165-197.
    20. Andrzej Rzonca & Piotr Cizkowicz, 2014. "The effects of unconventional monetary policy: what do central banks not include in their models? / Skutki niekonwencjonalnej polityki pieniê¿nej: czego banki centralne nie uwzglêdniaj¹w swoich modela," mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings 131, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    21. Melgarejo Duran, Mauricio & Stephen, Sheryl-Ann, 2020. "Internationalization and the capital structure of firms in emerging markets: Evidence from Latin America before and after the financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    22. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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