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The impact of private debt on economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Martti Randveer

    ()

  • Lenno Uuskula

    ()

  • Liina Kulu

    ()

Abstract

Both theoretical and empirical evidence show that recessions are steeper in countries with high levels of private debt and/or credit booms. But do these negative effects carry over to the period where the recession is over and the economy recovers from the crisis? In this paper we look at economic recovery episodes and relate the growth performance of countries with their debt levels and debt growth before the beginning of the recession. We find that a higher level of debt before a recession is correlated with smaller economic growth after the economic slowdown has finished. In contrast, higher credit growth before a recession is associated with higher GDP growth after the crisis. The effects of debt on consumption are more negative, implying that after recessions people consume less and save more than they did in the period before the recession. However, the overall economic effects of the debt measures on GDP and consumption growth are limited

Suggested Citation

  • Martti Randveer & Lenno Uuskula & Liina Kulu, 2012. "The impact of private debt on economic growth," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 05 Jan 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2011-10
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    File URL: http://www.eestipank.ee/sites/eestipank.ee/files/publication/en/WorkingPapers/2011/_wp_1011.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kazuo Ogawa, 2003. "Financial Distress and Corporate Investment: The Japanese Case in the 90s," ISER Discussion Paper 0584, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    3. Abdul Abiad & Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 281-302, June.
    4. Garry Tang & Christian Upper, 2010. "Debt reduction after crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    5. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, April.
    6. Lenno Uuskula & Peeter Luikmel & Jana Kask, 2005. "Critical Levels of Debt?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kazuo Ogawa, 2003. "Financial Distress and Employment: The Japanese Case in the 90s," NBER Working Papers 9646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. "The impact of private debt on economic growth"
      by The Arthurian in The New Arthurian Economics on 2017-03-09 15:00:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Elizaveta Lukmanova & Gabriele Tondl, 2016. "Macroeconomic Imbalances and Business Cycle Synchronization. Why Common Economic Governance is Imperative for the Eurozone," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp229, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    private debt; recession; economic growth; consumption;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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