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Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries

  • Markus Haavio
  • Caterina Mendicino
  • Maria Teresa Punzi

This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit anaylsis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2013.864025
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 21 (2014)
Issue (Month): 6 (April)
Pages: 407-412

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:21:y:2014:i:6:p:407-412
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  1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms," Working Papers 2011-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, . "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2011. "Financial Cycles; What? How? When?," IMF Working Papers 11/76, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  7. Thomas Helbling & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010. "Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/261, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2009. "Credit Crises, Money and Contractions: an historical view," NBER Working Papers 15389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521641739 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Facts and myths about the financial crisis of 2008," Working Papers 666, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
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