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Towards a financial cycle for the US, 1973-2014

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  • Rozite, Kristiana
  • Bezemer, Dirk J.
  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

With this paper, we suggest a new approach to estimating financial cycles in terms of interactions of real-sector and financial-sector sentiments. We will apply this to U.S. financial indicators from 1973 to 2014. Based on Schumpeter’s and Minsky’s financial cycle concepts, we arrive at a selection of six indicators that capture finance and real sector linkages: the slope of the yield curve, a Purchasing Managers’ Index, real-estate price returns, the S&P stock price index, and leverage ratios of households (consumer spending) and non-financial corporations. We estimate lead-lag relations and apply principal component analysis to aligned series in order to construct factors. Our conclusion is that two factors, capturing corporate and consumer sentiments, account for over 60% of the cumulative variance in our data. Corporate optimism peaks before crisis episodes, while household/consumer sentiment is more persistent and follows corporate sentiment with a lag.
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  • Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2016. "Towards a financial cycle for the US, 1973-2014," Research Report 16013-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugsom:16013-gem
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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