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A Theory of Minsky Super-Cycles and Financial Crises

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  • Thomas I. Palley

    () (Economics for Democratic & Open Societies, Washington DC)

Abstract

This paper argues that Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis weaves together a medium term Keynesian approach to the business cycles in the spirit of Samuelson (1936) and Hicks (1950) with long cycle thinking of economists such as Schumpeter (1939) and Kondratieff. Post Keynesians have devoted considerable attention to the medium term dimension of Minsky's thinking. The current paper concentrates on the long swing dimension and introduces the idea of "Minsky super-cycles." It is the supercycle that ultimately permits financial crisis. Whereas financially driven business cycles occur every decade, financial crises occur over longer durations reflecting the longer phase of the super-cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "A Theory of Minsky Super-Cycles and Financial Crises," IMK Working Paper 05-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:5-2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Hyman P. Minsky, 1994. "Financial Institutions, Economic Policy, and the Dynamic Behavior of the Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_126, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-143, Winter.
    5. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Mark Setterfield, 1997. "Should Economists Dispense with the Notion of Equilibrium?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 47-76, September.
    7. Ferri, Piero & Minsky, Hyman P., 1992. "Market processes and thwarting systems," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 79-91, June.
    8. David Dequech, 1999. "Expectations and Confidence under Uncertainty," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 415-430, March.
    9. L. Randall Wray, 2008. "Financial Markets Meltdown: What Can We Learn from Minsky," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_94, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Foley, Duncan K., 1987. "Liquidity-profit rate cycles in a capitalist economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 363-376, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Soon Ryoo, 2016. "Inequality of Income and Wealth in the Long Run: A Kaldorian Perspective," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 429-457, May.
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:190-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Leila E. Davis - Joao Paulo A. de Souza y Gonzalo Hernandez & Joao Paulo A. de Souza & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2017. "An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 015495, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    4. Ryoo, Soon, 2010. "Long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 163-186, June.
    5. Soon Ryoo, 2016. "Household debt and housing bubbles: a Minskian approach to boom-bust cycles," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-1006, December.
    6. Dan OLTEANU, 2011. "A Survey On The Drivers And Mechanisms Of Financial Crises," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 33(2(bis)(42), pages 73-100, December.
    7. Setterfield, Mark, 2011. "Anticipations of the Crisis: On the Similarities between post-Keynesian Economics and Regulation Theory," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 10.
    8. Pedro de Mendonça, 2013. "Nonlinear Phenomena in a Growing Economy with Convex Adjustment Costs," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2013/05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    9. Faruk Ülgen, 2014. "Financialized capitalism and the irrelevance of self-regulation : a Minskyian analysis of systemic viability," Post-Print halshs-01111162, HAL.
    10. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2016. "Towards a financial cycle for the US, 1973-2014," Research Report 16013-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    11. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley-Minsky model," Working Papers 20151509, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    12. Neuberger, Doris, 2018. "Kann Karl Marx die Finanzkrise 2007/08 erklären? Eine Einordnung seiner Geld- und Kredittheorie," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 155, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    13. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:51-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Heba Abdel Monem & Pilar Garcia Martinez, 2016. "Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region," IMF Working Papers 16/98, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Yun K. Kim, 2017. "Rise of Household Debt and the Great Recession in the US: Comparative Perspectives," Working Papers 2017_03, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.

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    Keywords

    Minsky; business cycles; financial instability hypothesis;

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