The predictive content of financial cycle measures for output fluctuations
The financial cycle refers to fluctuations in perceptions and attitudes about financial risk over time. It is often marked by swings in credit growth, asset prices, terms of access to external funding, and other financial developments. A single measure that summarised such indicators would simplify analysis of the financial cycle, with benefits for both systemic risk assessment and stabilisation policy. It is not obvious, however, how best to select and combine the many potentially relevant indicators or how the usefulness of the resulting measure might be assessed. One criterion is predictive power. This special feature reviews the power of three differently composed measures to predict output fluctuations up to two years ahead. One of the measures is found to have substantial predictive content for output forecasting at short horizons. However, this result seems to arise mainly from the inclusion of indicators strongly related to actual financial system stress, rather than from swings in more generalised perceptions and attitudes about financial risk.
Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel|
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009.
"Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets,"
2009 Meeting Papers
514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
- Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008.
"What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
- Marco Terrones & Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, .
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
- Stéphanie Guichard & David Haugh & David Turner, 2009. "Quantifying the Effect of Financial Conditions in the Euro Area, Japan, United Kingdom and United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 677, OECD Publishing.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1106g. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.