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A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification

Author

Listed:
  • George Kapetanios

    (Kings College, University of London)

  • Simon Price

    (Essex Business School, City University and CAMA)

  • Garry Young

    (NIESR and CFM)

Abstract

A financial conditions index (FCI) is designed to summarise the state of financial markets. Two are constructed with UK data. The first is the first principal component of a set of financial indicators. The second comes from a new approach taking information from a large set of macroeconomic variables weighted by the joint covariance with a subset of the financial indicators (a set of spreads), using multivariate partial least squares, again using the first factor. The resulting FCIs are broadly similar. They both have some forecasting power for monthly GDP in a quasi-real-time recursive evaluation from 2011–14 and outperform an FCI produced by Goldman Sachs. A second factor, that may be interpreted as a monetary conditions index, adds further forecast power, while third factors have a mixed effect on performance. The FCIs are used to improve identification of credit supply shocks in an SVAR. The main effects relative to an SVAR excluding an FCI of the (adverse) credit shock IRFs are to make the positive impact on inflation more precise and to reveal an increased positive impact on spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • George Kapetanios & Simon Price & Garry Young, 2017. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification," Bank of England working papers 699, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0699
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolay Iskrev & Rita Fradique Lourenço & Carla Soares, 2021. "Indicators of monetary policy stance and financial conditions: an overview," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2020. "Constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of VAR models – A review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 69-83.
    4. Brum-Civelli, Conrado & Fried-Gindel, Alejandro & Garcia-Hiernaux, Alfredo, 2024. "IFCI-SA: International financial conditions index for South American economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PA).
    5. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2023. "Monitoring Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 253-287, June.
    6. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    7. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.
    8. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Jose Arreola-Hernandez & David Roubaud & Stelios Bekiros, 2019. "Spillover across Eurozone credit market sectors and determinants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(59), pages 6333-6349, December.
    9. Mohsin, Muhammad & Ullah, Hafeez & Iqbal, Nadeem & Iqbal, Wasim & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "How external debt led to economic growth in South Asia: A policy perspective analysis from quantile regression," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 423-437.
    10. Morana, Claudio, 2024. "A new macro-financial condition index for the euro area," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-87.
    11. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
    12. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202101 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bui Thanh Trung, 2022. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 499-522, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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