IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sav/journl/v70y2022i6p499-522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index

Author

Listed:
  • Bui Thanh Trung

    (University of Szeged, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

Measuring the stance of monetary policy is of importance for the analysis and implementation of monetary policy. In emerging economies, the popular use of multiple instrument framework as well as the significance of interest rate channel and exchange rate channel implies that monetary condition index (MCI) can play an important role in evaluating the timing of tightening or loosing monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the role of MCI as an overall measure of monetary policy in emerging economy that follow inflation targeting by using the VAR model. The weight of MCI components, exchange rate and interest rate, is derived from the inflation equation in the VAR model. It shows that exchange rate plays a significant role but its weight is less than that of interest rate in most emerging economies. Furthermore, the empirical results show that inflation shows a reduction after a contractionary shock of monetary policy in most emerging economies. The finding implies that MCI is a useful indicator that can predict changes in the stance of monetary policy and the trend in inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bui Thanh Trung, 2022. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 499-522, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sav:journl:v:70:y:2022:i:6:p:499-522
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sav.sk/journals/uploads/0103170906%2022%20Trung%20+%20SR.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico :," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
    2. Eika, Kari H & Ericsson, Neil R & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 765-790, November.
    3. Furlani, Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti & Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Laurini, Márcio Poletti, 2010. "Exchange rate movements and monetary policy in Brazil: Econometric and simulation evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 284-295, January.
    4. Muhamed Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2012. "Measuring monetary conditions in a small open economy: the case of Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 218-231, July.
    5. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
    6. Mehtap Kesriyeli & I.Ilhan Kocaker, 1999. "Monetary Conditions Index : A Monetary Policy Indicator For Turkey," Discussion Papers 9908, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Manuel Benazić, 2012. "Monetary Conditions Index for Croatia," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(S1), pages 47-64, January.
    8. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    9. Berument, Hakan, 2007. "Measuring monetary policy for a small open economy: Turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 411-430, June.
    10. de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-245, February.
    11. Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon & Young, Garry, 2018. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: Forecasting and structural identification," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Tobias Knedlik, 2006. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 629-641, December.
    13. Ma, Yong, 2014. "Monetary policy based on nonlinear quantity rule: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-104.
    14. Kannan R, 2007. "Monetary Conditions Index for India," Working Papers id:1273, eSocialSciences.
    15. Osborne-Kinch, Jenny & Holton, Sarah, 2010. "A Discussion of the Monetary Condition Index," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 68-80, January.
    16. Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Peter J Montiel & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2016. "Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries: Evidence from India," IMF Working Papers 2016/167, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Wai-Ching Poon, 2010. "A monetary policy rule: The augmented Monetary Conditions Index for Philippines using UECM and bounds tests," Monash Economics Working Papers 04-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    18. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    19. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta Kumar Mallick & Ricardo Magalhães Sousa, 2014. "Nonlinear monetary policy reaction functions in large emerging economies: the case of Brazil and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 973-984, March.
    20. Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico :," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
    21. Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht & Robin Loomes, 2002. "The unintended consequences of using an MCI as an operational monetary policy target in New Zealand: Suggestive evidence from rolling regressions," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 217-233.
    22. Bui Trung Thanh & Gábor Kiss Dávid, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy by money supply and interest rate: evidence from emerging economies," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 347-367, September.
    23. Muhamed Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2012. "Measuring monetary conditions in a small open economy: the case of Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 218-231, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. ?lyas ??klar & Burhan Do?an, 2015. "Monetary Condition Index with Time Varying Weights: An Application to Turkish Data," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 117-132, June.
    2. Bui Trung Thanh & Gábor Kiss Dávid, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy by money supply and interest rate: evidence from emerging economies," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 347-367, September.
    3. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Les indicateurs des conditions monétaires permettent-ils de prévoir l'activité économique ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 91-116.
    4. Zulfiqar Hyder & Muhammad Mazhar Khan, 2007. "Monetary Conditions Index for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 3, pages 165-190.
    5. Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "Assessing the Impact of Changes in Transparency and Accountability at the Bank of Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(3), pages 279-299, September.
    6. Civcir, İrfan & Ertac Varoglu, Dizem, 2019. "International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 647-665.
    7. Muhamed Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2012. "Measuring monetary conditions in a small open economy: the case of Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 218-231, July.
    8. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Augmented MCi: AN Indicator Of Monetary Policy Stance For ASEAN-5?," Monash Economics Working Papers 25-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Torój, Andrzej, 2010. "Adjustment capacity in a monetary union: a DSGE evaluation of Poland and Slovakia," MF Working Papers 4, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 11 May 2010.
    11. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Arnoldo Lopez Marmolejo, 2015. "Mexico’s monetary policy communication and money markets," Working Papers 1515, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Arnoldo Lopez-Marmolejo, 2019. "Mexico¡¯s Monetary Policy Communication and Money Markets," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 81-97, February.
    13. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Ferreira, Caio Ferrari, 2020. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the fear of floating?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-87.
    14. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Working Papers hal-00973056, HAL.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    17. Arjeta Vokshi (Abazi), 2013. "A Monetary Conditions Index For Albania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(15), pages 1-18.
    18. Richard Dennis, 1997. "A measure of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    19. Duguay, Pierre & Longworth, David, 1998. "Macroeconomic models and policy making at the bank of canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 357-375, July.
    20. Villarreal, Francisco G., 2014. "Monetary Policy and Inequality in Mexico," MPRA Paper 57074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Manamani SAHOO, 2017. "Financial conditions index (FCI), inflation and growth: Some evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 147-172, Autumn.
    22. Christophe BLOT & Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Countries Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 244, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary condition index; monetary policy; multiple instruments; emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sav:journl:v:70:y:2022:i:6:p:499-522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Renac (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eusavsk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.