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On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting

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  • Clinton, Kevin

Abstract

Two aspects of the recent monetary history of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand stand out: the sensitivity of their dollars to prices of resource-based commodities, and inflation targeting. This paper explores various aspects of these phenomena. It uses standard empirical models, and an investigation of the different approaches to inflation targeting in the three countries—including a case study of the 1998 international financial crisis—to assess how well a floating currency serves a resource-rich economy, and how monetary policy ought to be conducted during periods of turbulence in commodity and currency markets. The broad swings and cycles in the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars are found to have been helpful to macroeconomic stability. It appears that the most effective monetary policy approach focuses on domestic inflation control over the medium term. In a crisis of confidence in the financial markets, of the kind that sporadically affected the Canadian dollar in the first half of the 1990s, a case can be made for short-term monetary actions to stabilize expectations. Apart from crisis situations, as long as a credible low-inflation policy is followed, monetary policy does not have to be concerned with the exchange rate per se.

Suggested Citation

  • Clinton, Kevin, 2001. "On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting," Staff Working Papers 01-3, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:01-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 39-61.
    2. David Gruen & Tro Kortian, 1996. "Why Does the Australian Dollar Move so Closely with the Terms of Trade?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9601, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Neary, J Peter & Purvis, Douglas D, 1982. " Sectoral Shocks in a Dependent Economy: Long-run Adjustment and Short-run Accommodation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 229-253.
    4. Clinton, K. & Zelmer, M., 1997. "Constraints on the Conduct of Canadian Monetary Policy in 1990s: Dealing with Uncertainty in Financial Markets," Technical Reports 80, Bank of Canada.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Staff Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
    2. Benjamin Dennis & Talan Iscan, 2002. "Terms of Trade Risk," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive totrisk, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
    3. Craig Beaumont & Li Cui, 2007. "Conquering Fear of Floating; Australia's Successful Adaptation to a Flexible Exchange Rate," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 07/2, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Celine Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Staff Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada.
    5. Silvia Sgherri, 2008. "Explicit and implicit targets in open economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 969-980.
    6. Gilles Duffrenot & Kimiko Sugimoto, 2010. "Pegging the future West African single currency in regard to internal/external competitiveness: a counterfactual analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp974, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Inflation targets; International topics; Monetary policy implementation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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