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Spillover of the ECB's Monetary Policy Outside the Euro Area: How Different is Conventional From Unconventional Policy?

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  • Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova
  • Peter Claeys
  • Borek Vasicek

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of ECB policy on the euro area and six non-EMU countries. The analysis is based on the evolution of a synthetic index of overall euro area monetary conditions (MCI) that can be decomposed into conventional and unconventional policy measures. A standard monetary VAR including the MCI subcomponents shows that the transmission of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area is quite different than under conventional policy: prices react quickly, but the response of output (industrial production) is muted. A block-restricted VAR analysis confirms that euro area monetary policy spills over to the macroeconomic developments of non-EMU countries. While conventional monetary policy has a generalised effect on economic activity, exchange rates and prices, unconventional measures have generated a variety of responses. Exchange rates respond rather quickly, but an effect on the real economy is found only for some countries, and inflation remains largely unaffected.

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  • Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2014. "Spillover of the ECB's Monetary Policy Outside the Euro Area: How Different is Conventional From Unconventional Policy?," Working Papers 2014/15, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2014/15
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    Keywords

    ECB; monetary policy; synthetic indicator; unconventional measures; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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