IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rbp/wpaper/2014-017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of the U.S. quantitative easing on the Peruvian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Carrera, César

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Pérez-Forero, Fernando

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Ramírez-Rondán, Nelson

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

Emerging economies were largely affected because of FED's quantitative easing (QE) policies. This paper assesses the impact of these measures in terms of key macroeconomic variables for a small open economy (SOE) such as Peru. We identify QE policy shocks in a SVAR with Block Exogeneity (Zha, 1999) and we impose a mixture of zero and sign restrictions (Arias et al., 2014). In addition, following Pesaran and Smith (2014), we implement a counterfactual exercise in order to gauge the differences between two scenarios: with and without QE policies. Overall, we find that QE policies had significant effects over financial variables such as aggregate credit and the exchange rate. On the other hand, we find small but significant effects over inflation and output in the medium run.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrera, César & Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Ramírez-Rondán, Nelson, 2014. "Effects of the U.S. quantitative easing on the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2014-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2014-017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2014/documento-de-trabajo-17-2014.pdf
    File Function: Application/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2012. "Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2078-2101.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    3. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
    4. Jonas E. Arias & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2013. "Inference Based on SVARs Identied with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Working Papers 2013-24, FEDEA.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    6. Fabio Canova & Fernando J. Pérez Forero, 2012. "Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs," Economics Working Papers 1321, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Schenkelberg, Heike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2013. "Real effects of quantitative easing at the zero lower bound: Structural VAR-based evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 327-357.
    8. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3589, CESifo.
    9. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    10. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    11. Peersman, Gert, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, February.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," CESifo Working Paper Series 3879, CESifo.
    14. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 241-270.
    15. Gert Peersman, 2012. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2012 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    17. Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "An Introductory Review of a Structural VAR-X Estimation and Applications," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009200, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    18. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, September.
    19. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    20. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 41-59.
    21. Heike Schenkelberg & Sebastian Watzka, 2011. "Real Effects of Quantitative Easing at the Zero-Lower Bound: Structural VAR-based Evidence from Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 3486, CESifo.
    22. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Smith, Ron P., 2016. "Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics: An empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 262-280.
    23. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    24. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3589, CESifo.
    25. Carrera, César, 2011. "El canal del crédito bancario en el Perú: Evidencia y mecanismo de transmisión," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 63-82.
    26. Cronin, David, 2014. "The interaction between money and asset markets: A spillover index approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 185-202.
    27. Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times," Working Paper Series 1253, European Central Bank.
    28. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    29. Jones, Callum & Kulish, Mariano, 2013. "Long-term interest rates, risk premia and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2547-2561.
    30. Paul Castillo Bardález & Jorge Salas, 2010. "Los términos de intercambio como impulsores de fluctuaciones económicas en economías en desarrollo: estudio empírico," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2010, July-Dece.
    31. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 295-339, April.
    32. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
    33. Eichengreen, Barry, 2013. "Currency war or international policy coordination?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 425-433.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Guarín & José Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 32(74), pages 68-86, June.
    2. Fernando José Pérez Forero, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierachical Panel VAR," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2015eng, July-Dece.
    3. Carrera, César & Pérez, Fernando, 2014. "Efectos de la flexibilización cuantitativa en una economía pequeña y abierta," Revista Moneda, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 160, pages 18-21.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative Easing; Structural Vector Autoregressions; Sign Restrictions; Counterfactual analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2014-017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Research Unit). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bcrgvpe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.