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Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs

This paper provides a method to estimate time varying coefficients structural VARs which are non-recursive and potentially overidentified. The procedure allows for linear and non-linear restrictions on the parameters, maintains the multi-move structure of standard algorithms and can be used to estimate structural models with different identification restrictions. We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks and compare the results with those obtained with traditional methods.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1321.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1321
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  1. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A., 1996. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 96-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  4. repec:fth:starer:9613 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2008. "The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 369-388, 03.
  6. Fabio Canova & Matthias Paustian, 2007. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," Economics Working Papers 1203, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2011.
  7. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2003. "Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economics Working Papers 918, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  9. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2012. "The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 47-60.
  10. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Economics Working Papers 920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  11. Edward P. Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Sequential Monte Carlo sampling for DSGE models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  13. Markku Lanne, Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/23, European University Institute.
  14. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2009. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Economics Working Papers 1158, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2012.
  17. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 349-366, November.
  18. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  19. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  20. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  21. Juan F. Rubio-Ram�rez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
  22. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  23. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
  24. Robertson, John C & Tallman, Ellis W, 2001. "Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 324-30, July.
  25. Geweke, John & Tanizaki, Hisashi, 2001. "Bayesian estimation of state-space models using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm within Gibbs sampling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 151-170, August.
  26. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  27. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  28. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  29. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December.
  30. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Time varying VARs with inequality restrictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1126-1138, July.
  31. Kociecki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of recursive SVAR models with overidentifying restrictions," Working Paper Series 1492, European Central Bank.
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