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Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

Listed author(s):
  • Fabio Canova
  • Matteo Ciccarelli
  • Eva Ortega

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, and the Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panel VAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and three outside of it. There are changes in the features of European business cycles and in the transmission of shocks. They precede the three events of interest and are more linked to a general process of European convergence and synchronization.

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File URL: https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/1158.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1158.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision: Apr 2012
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1158
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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  1. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2003. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Economics Working Papers 924, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2004.
  2. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 14630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
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  5. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2003. "Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economics Working Papers 918, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  6. Bergman, U. Michael & Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1998. "Historical Evidence on Business Cycles: The International Experience," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 255, Stockholm School of Economics.
  7. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
  9. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 0603, European Central Bank.
  10. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998. "Let's get real: a factor analytical approach to disaggregated business cycle dynamics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10147, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  11. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  12. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  13. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  14. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343 Elsevier.
  16. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
  17. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-287, April.
  18. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Alberto Alesina, 1988. "Macroeconomics and Politics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 13-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA.
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