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Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations

  • Erdenebat Bataa
  • Denise R. Osborn
  • Marianne Sensier
  • Dick van Dijk

We investigate changes in international business cycle affiliations using an iterative procedure for detecting system-wide structural breaks. We analyze GDP growth rates in two systems, one with the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada and the other for the Euro-area countries of France, Germany and Italy. We discover that international dynamic interactions change in both the mid-1980s and early 1990s, with such changes being particularly important for studying influences on the aggregate Euro-area. However, contemporaneous (conditional) correlations between these Euro-area countries increase in 1984 and 1998, with a large increase in correlations also evident across the international system during the 1990s.

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File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr132.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 132.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:132
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Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/

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