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Long-term Interest Rates, Risk Premia and Unconventional Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Callum Jones

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Mariano Kulish

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

In a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined, we study two kinds of unconventional monetary policy: long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy and announcements about the future path of the short-term rate. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that long-term interest rate rules can perform better than conventional Taylor rules, and that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact on both expectations and the risk premium. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish, 2011. "Long-term Interest Rates, Risk Premia and Unconventional Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2011-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reis, Ricardo, 2018. "Central banks going long," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87618, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kühl, Michael, 2016. "The optimal conduct of central bank asset purchases," Working Paper Series 1973, European Central Bank.
    3. Kühl, Michael, 2016. "The effects of government bond purchases on leverage constraints of banks and non-financial firms," Discussion Papers 38/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Alexander Guarín & José Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 32(74), pages 68-86, June.
    5. Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Central Banks Going Long," Discussion Papers 1810, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    7. César Carrera & Fernando Pérez Forero & Nelson Ramírez-Rondán, 2015. "Effects of U.S. Quantitative Easing on Latin American Economies," Working Papers 2015-35, Peruvian Economic Association.
    8. David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    9. Martin Pietrzak, 2016. "Evaluation of unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy," FIW Working Paper series 167, FIW.
    10. Declan Trott, 2015. "Australia and the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Some Monetary Policy Options," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 5-20.
    11. Carrera, César & Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Ramírez-Rondán, Nelson, 2014. "Effects of the U.S. quantitative easing on the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2014-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    12. Cécile Bastidon & Philippe Gilles & Nicolas Huchet, 2016. "The ECB, Between Conservatism and Pragmatism," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, pages 25-52.
    13. Hanisch, Max, 2017. "The effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from a structural dynamic factor model for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 110-134.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unconventional monetary policy; Taylor rule; risk premia; term structure;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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