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Central Banks Going Long

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  • Ricardo Reis

Abstract

Central banks have sometimes turned their attention to long-term interest rates as a target or as a diagnosis of policy. This paper describes two historical episodes when this happened - the US in 1942-51 and the UK in the 1960s - and uses a model of inflation dynamics to evaluate monetary policies that rely on going long. It concludes that these policies for the most part fail to keep inflation under control. A complementary methodological contribution is to re-state the classic problem of monetary policy through interest-rate rules in a continuous-time setting where shocks follow diffusions in order to integrate the endogenous determination of inflation and the term structure of interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Central Banks Going Long," CESifo Working Paper Series 6998, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6998
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reis, Ricardo, 2016. "Funding quantitative easing to target inflation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67883, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Schwartz, Anna J., 2009. "Money in Historical Perspective," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226742298, September.
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    4. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    5. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
    6. Brunnermeier, Markus & Sannikov, Yuliy, 2016. "Macro, Money and Finance: A Continuous Time Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Robert E. Hall & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank’s Payment on Reserves," NBER Working Papers 22761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226519944 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ricardo Reis, 2016. "Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?," NBER Working Papers 23014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jones, Callum & Kulish, Mariano, 2013. "Long-term interest rates, risk premia and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2547-2561.
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    12. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226520018 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2016. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 2, pages 011-062, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-687, August.
    15. Robert E. Hall & Ricardo Reis, 2015. "Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking," NBER Working Papers 21173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Capie,Forrest, 2010. "The Bank of England," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521192828, September.
    17. McGough, Bruce & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2005. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 855-879, July.
    18. Edward Nelson, 2004. "The U.K.s rocky road to stability," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct.
    19. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
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    22. Smith, Josephine M. & Taylor, John B., 2009. "The term structure of policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 907-917, October.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Christian Pfister & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policies: A stock-taking exercise," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 137-169.
    4. K. Mukherjee & B. Ouattara, 2021. "Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; yield curve; pegs; ceilings; affine models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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