IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfm/wpaper/1626.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Funding Quantitative Easing to Target Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Reis

    () (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)
    London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE))

Abstract

The study of quantitative easing (QE) policies has so far focussed on which assets the central bank should buy, and on how it can pursue its targets for real and financial stability. This paper emphasizes instead the funding of QE by central bank liabilities, with an eye on achieving the inflation target. Looking backwards, it shows evidence that post-QE1, the U.S. banking sector became saturated with reserves, so the central bank can control the size of the balance sheet independently of its interest-rate policy. Using options data for U.S. inflation, it shows that while QE1 had an effect on expected inflation, further rounds of QE did not. Looking forward, it estimates the feasibility of keeping the liabilities of the central bank at a high level in terms of a solvency upper bound. Finally, it argues that the central bank’s interest-rate policy is not out of ammunition when it comes to targeting inflation, since there are radical proposals on the composition of its liabilities, their maturity and the way to remunerate them that could be employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Reis, 2016. "Funding Quantitative Easing to Target Inflation," Discussion Papers 1626, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1626
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Discussion-Papers/2016/CFMDP2016-26-Paper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo Reis, 2015. "Different Types of Central Bank Insolvency and the Central Role of Seignorage," NBER Working Papers 21226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    3. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    4. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1683-1722, August.
    5. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-274, June.
    6. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary science, fiscal alchemy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-434.
    7. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke, 2015. "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9928-2.
    9. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650, Elsevier.
    10. Ricardo Reis, 2017. "QE in the Future: The Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in a Fiscal Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 71-112, April.
    11. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    12. Cochrane, John H., 2014. "Monetary policy with interest on reserves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-108.
    13. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    14. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2016. "Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 513-518, May.
    15. Gauti Eggertsson & Bulat Gafarov & Saroj Bhatarai, 2014. "Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing," 2014 Meeting Papers 1292, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Michael Woodford, 2016. "Quantitative Easing and Financial Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 6, pages 151-233, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 110-137, March.
    18. Hall, Robert E, 1997. "Irving Fisher's Self-Stabilizing Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 436-438, May.
    19. Del Negro, Marco & Sims, Christopher A., 2015. "When does a central bank׳s balance sheet require fiscal support?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-19.
    20. Daniel O. Beltran & Valentin Bolotnyy & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2015. "Un-Networking: The Evolution of Networks in the Federal Funds Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2014. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," NBER Working Papers 20339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Berriel Tiago C & Bhattarai Saroj, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Central Bank Balance Sheet Concerns," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-33, January.
    23. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    24. Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1345-1438, Elsevier.
    25. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2020. "Non-neutrality of Open-Market Operations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 175-226, July.
    26. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    27. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "Central Bank Design," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 17-44, Fall.
    28. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    29. Marco Bassetto & Todd Messer, 2013. "Fiscal Consequences of Paying Interest on Reserves," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34, pages 413-436, December.
    30. Ricardo Reis, 2016. "QE in the future: the central bank's balance sheet in a financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1620, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    31. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2018. "The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & A G Malliaris (ed.), Innovative Federal Reserve Policies During the Great Financial Crisis, chapter 3, pages 63-124, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    32. Huberto M. Ennis & Alexander L. Wolman, 2015. "Large Excess Reserves in the United States: A View from the Cross-Section of Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(1), pages 251-289, January.
    33. Ben S. Bernanke, 2015. "Origins and Mission of the Federal Reserve," Introductory Chapters, in: The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis, Princeton University Press.
    34. Joyce, Michael, 2012. "Quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies: Bank of England conference summary," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(1), pages 48-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Reis, 2019. "Central Banks Going Long," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 3, pages 043-081, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Berentsen, Aleksander & Kraenzlin, Sébastien & Müller, Benjamin, 2018. "Exit strategies for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 20-40.
    3. Lenel, Moritz & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2019. "The short rate disconnect in a monetary economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 59-77.
    4. Williamson, Stephen D., 2019. "Interest on reserves, interbank lending, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 14-30.
    5. R. Wouters, 2016. "The transmission mechanism of new and traditional instruments of monetary and macroprudential policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 105-117, December.
    6. Ricardo Reis, 2016. "Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?," NBER Working Papers 23014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Is something really wrong with macroeconomics?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1-2), pages 132-155.
    8. Anne-Marie Rieu-Foucault, 2018. "Les interventions de crise de la FED et de la BCE diffèrent-elles ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Hall, Robert E. & Reis, Ricardo, 2016. "Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 11578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Arce, Óscar & Nuño, Galo & Thaler, Dominik & Thomas, Carlos, 2020. "A large central bank balance sheet? Floor vs corridor systems in a New Keynesian environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 350-367.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, Winter.
    12. Ennis, Huberto M., 2018. "A simple general equilibrium model of large excess reserves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 50-65.
    13. Ricardo Reis, 2017. "Comment on "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 246-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Goodhart, Charles, 2017. "A Central Bank’s optimal balance sheet size?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84205, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Gabriel Stein, 2018. "The Challenges for Central Banks," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 131-138, February.
    16. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2020. "The safe asset, banking equilibrium, and optimal central bank monetary, prudential and balance-sheet policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 113-128.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2020. "Non-neutrality of Open-Market Operations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 175-226, July.
    2. Ricardo Reis, 2017. "QE in the Future: The Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in a Fiscal Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 71-112, April.
    3. Ricardo Reis, 2016. "Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?," Discussion Papers 1701, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Bailey, Andrew & Bridges, Jonathan & Harrison, Richard & Jones, Josh & Mankodi, Aakash, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England working papers 899, Bank of England.
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Alexei G. Orlov & Manuela Pedio, 2014. "Understanding the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Corporate Bond Market in Good and Bad Times: A Markov Switching Model," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1623, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    8. Martijn Boermans & Viacheslav Keshkov, 2018. "The impact of the ECB asset purchases on the European bond market structure: Granular evidence on ownership concentration," DNB Working Papers 590, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Guidolin, Massimo & Orlov, Alexei G. & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on corporate bonds under regime shifts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 176-202.
    10. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2017. "Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?," IMF Working Papers 2017/085, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Arthur Galego Mendes & Tiago Couto Berriel, "undated". "Central Bank Balance Sheet, Liquidity Trap, and Quantitative Easing," Textos para discussão 638, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    12. Pegoraro, Stefano & Montagna, Mattia, 2021. "Issuance and valuation of corporate bonds with quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2520, European Central Bank.
    13. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    14. Stephanie Titzck & Jan Willem van den End, 2019. "The impact of size, composition and duration of the central bank balance sheet on inflation expectations and market prices," DNB Working Papers 627, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2020. "Quantitative easing in the Euro Area – An event study approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-36.
    16. Iovino, Luigi & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Kevin B. Proulx, 2016. "Bernanke’s No-Arbitrage Argument Revisited: Can Open Market Operations in Real Assets Eliminate the Liquidity Trap?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 3, pages 063-104, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2019. "New Evidence on the Effects of Quantitative Easing," Working Papers 1912, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    19. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1626. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Martin Hannon). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cmlseuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.