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Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo J. Caballero
  • Emmanuel Farhi
  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Abstract

We explore the consequences of safe asset scarcity on aggregate demand in a stylized IS-LM/Mundell Fleming style environment. Acute safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a "safety trap" recession. In the open economy, safe asset scarcity spreads from one country to the other via capital flows, equalizing interest rates. Acute global safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a global safety trap. The exchange rate becomes indeterminate but plays a crucial role in both the distribution and the magnitude of output adjustment across countries. Policies that increase the net supply of safe assets somewhere are output enhancing everywhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2016. "Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 513-518, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:513-18
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161108
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB," CEPR Discussion Papers 10905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2010. "Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility," NBER Chapters,in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reis, Ricardo, 2016. "Funding quantitative easing to target inflation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67883, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, April.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank’s Payment on Reserves," NBER Working Papers 22761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jan Willem van den End, 2017. "Applying complexity theory to interest rates: Evidence of critical transitions in the euro area," DNB Working Papers 567, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Oct 2017.
    6. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:32:y:2017:i:90:p:175-219. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano & Ricardo Reis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "ESBies: safety in the tranches," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 175-219.
    8. Ahnert, Toni & Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Chapman, James, 2015. "Safe, or not safe? Covered bonds and Bank Fragility," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112875, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2016. "A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 22751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Corneo, Giacomo, 2017. "Ein Staatsfonds, der eine soziale Dividende finanziert," Discussion Papers 2017/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Andrew Filardo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "Effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies in a low interest rate environment," BIS Working Papers 691, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Demographic Change, Long-Run Housing Demand and the Related Challenges for the Irish Banking Sector," Book Chapters,in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2016. "From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since WWII," NBER Working Papers 22535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2018. "The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, volume 33 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:zbw:svrwjg:201718 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Opportunities and Risks for Foreign Direct Investment," Book Chapters,in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
    18. Bergin, Adele & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Mc Inerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Baseline: Methodology, Assumptions and Projections," Book Chapters,in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. Williamson, Stephen D., 2017. "Low Real Interest Rates and the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 2017-10, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Gilles Dufrénot & Meryem Rhouzlane, 2018. "Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century," Working Papers halshs-01821669, HAL.
    21. Reis, Ricardo, 2017. "Comment on: “jump‐starting the euro area recovery: would a rise in core fiscal spending help the periphery”," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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