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Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand

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  • Ricardo J. Caballero
  • Emmanuel Farhi
  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Abstract

We explore the consequences of safe asset scarcity on aggregate demand in a stylized IS-LM/Mundell Fleming environment. Acute safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a “safety trap” recession. In the open economy, safe asset scarcity spreads from one country to the other via capital flows, equalizing interest rates. Acute global safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a global safety trap. The exchange rate becomes indeterminate but plays a crucial role in both the distribution and the magnitude of output adjustment across countries. Policies that increase the net supply of safe assets somewhere are output enhancing everywhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2016. "Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 22044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22044
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 21670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "The Safety Trap," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 223-274.
    3. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB," CEPR Discussion Papers 10905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    5. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2010. "Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility," Working Papers 2010.114, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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