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Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand

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  • Caballero, Ricardo J
  • Farhi, Emmanuel
  • Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier

Abstract

We explore the consequences of safe asset scarcity on aggregate demand in a stylized IS-LM/Mundell Fleming style environment. Acute safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a “safety trap” recession. In the open economy, safe asset scarcity spreads from one country to the other via capital flows, equalizing interest rates. Acute global safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a global safety trap. The exchange rate becomes indeterminate but plays a crucial role in both the distribution and the magnitude of output adjustment across countries. Policies that increase the net supply of safe assets somewhere are output enhancing everywhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Caballero, Ricardo J & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7cb7s8wr, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt7cb7s8wr
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2021. "Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound [“Safe Assets”]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(6), pages 2570-2621.
    2. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "The Safety Trap," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 223-274.
    3. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    4. Caballero, Ricardo & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Farhi, Emmanuel, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB," CEPR Discussion Papers 10905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2010. "Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility," Working Papers 2010.114, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Clean Water and Sanitation; Decent Work and Economic Growth; Economics; Commerce; Management; Tourism and Services;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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