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The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates

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  • Thorbecke, Willem

Abstract

Safe asset demand and currency manipulation increase the dollar and the U.S. current account deficit. Deficits in manufacturing trade cause dislocation and generate protectionism. Dynamic OLS results indicate that U.S. export elasticities exceed unity for automobiles, toys, wood, aluminum, iron, steel, and other goods. Elasticities for U.S. imports from China are close to one or higher for footwear, radios, sports equipment, lamps, and watches and exceed 0.5 for iron, steel, aluminum, miscellaneous manufacturing, and metal tools. Elasticities for U.S. imports from other countries are large for electrothermal appliances, radios, furniture, lamps, miscellaneous manufacturing, aluminum, automobiles, plastics, and other categories. Stock returns on many of these sectors also fall when the dollar appreciates. Several manufacturing industries are thus exposed to a strong dollar. Policymakers could weaken the dollar and deflect protectionist pressure by promoting the euro, the yen, and the renminbi as alternative reserve currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorbecke, Willem, 2018. "The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 538-549.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:538-549
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2018.06.002
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    1. Ho, Sy-Hoa & Nguyen, Trung-Thanh & To-The, Nguyen, 2020. "Asymmetry and Symmetry of real exchange rate effect on the bilateral trade balance between Vietnam and the United States: aggregated and disaggregated levels of investigation," MPRA Paper 98416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Willem THORBECKE & Chen CHEN & Nimesh SALIKE, 2020. "The Relationship between Product Complexity and Exchange Rate Elasticities: Evidence from the People's Republic of China's Manufacturing Industries," Discussion papers 20075, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lin, Ye, 2024. "Who has mastered exchange rate ups and downs: China or the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Shengliang Zhao & Lixin Liu, 2023. "Novel evidence on the asymmetric J‐curve in the commodity trade between Korea and China: evidence from 75 industries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(2), pages 142-164, November.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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