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The Dollar in the U.S. International Transactions (USIT) Model

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Abstract

The dollar's 20 percent climb against a broad index of foreign currencies since the middle of 2014 has led to an increased focus on how dollar fluctuations affect the U.S. economy. This note provides further detail on the structure and estimation of the trade block of the USIT model. In the context of the model, we present the estimated effect of a 10 percent dollar appreciation on U.S. trade flows and trade prices. We conclude with an assessment of the model's performance since the dollar began its steep appreciation in the summer of 2014.

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  • Joseph W. Gruber & Andrew H. McCallum & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2016. "The Dollar in the U.S. International Transactions (USIT) Model," IFDP Notes 2016-02-08-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgin:2016-02-08-2
    DOI: 10.17016/2573-2129.16
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    Cited by:

    1. Lael Brainard, 2016. "What Happened to the Great Divergence? a speech at the 2016 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York, February 26, 2016," Speech 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Office of Financial Research (ed.), 2016. "2016 Financial Stability Report," Reports, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 16-3.
    3. Willem Thorbecke & Nimesh Salike, 2020. "Export Sophistication and Trade Elasticities," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 2(1), pages 7-26, April.
    4. Colin J. Hottman & Ryan Monarch, 2023. "Who’s Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups," Working Papers 23-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Masuda, Kazuto, 2021. "Trade Policy and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Application of the Tobit Model," SocArXiv njzk3, Center for Open Science.
    6. Thorbecke, Willem, 2018. "The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 538-549.
    7. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Baoping Shang, 2016. "What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low: Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/124, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Lael Brainard, 2016. "An Update on the Outlook, Liquidity, and Resilience : a speech at the Institute of International Bankers Annual Washington Conference, Washington, D.C., March 7, 2016," Speech 893, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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