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Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking

Listed author(s):
  • Hall, Robert E
  • Reis, Ricardo

Since 2008, the central banks of advanced countries have borrowed trillions of dollars from their commercial banks in the form of interest-paying reserves and invested the proceeds in portfolios of risky assets. We investigate how this new style of central banking a ects central banks' solvency. A central bank is insolvent if its requirement to pay dividends to its government exceeds its income by enough to cause an unending upward drift in its debts to commercial banks. We consider three sources of risk to central banks: interest-rate risk (the Federal Reserve), default risk (the European Central Bank), and exchange-rate risk (central banks of small open economies). We nd that a central bank that pays dividends equal to a standard concept of net income will always be solvent|its reserve obligations will not explode. In some circumstances, the dividend will be negative, meaning that the government is making a payment to the bank. If the charter does not provide for payments in that direction, then reserves will tend to grow more in crises than they shrink in normal times. To prevent this buildup, the charter needs to provide for makeup reductions in payments from the bank to the government. We compute measures of the nancial strength of central banks, and discuss how di erent institutions interact with quantitative easing policies to put these banks in less or more danger of instability. We conclude that the risks to nancial stability are real in theory, but remote in practice today.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 10741.

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Date of creation: Jul 2015
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10741
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  1. Cukierman, Alex, 2008. "Central bank independence and monetary policymaking institutions -- Past, present and future," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 722-736, December.
  2. Gauti Eggertsson & Bulat Gafarov & Saroj Bhatarai, 2014. "Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing," 2014 Meeting Papers 1292, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
  4. Del Negro, Marco & Sims, Christopher A., 2015. "When does a central bank׳s balance sheet require fiscal support?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-19.
  5. Claudia H Dziobek & John W. Dalton, 2005. "Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/72, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Marco Bassetto & Todd Messer, 2013. "Fiscal Consequences of Paying Interest on Reserves," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34, pages 413-436, December.
  7. Arthur Galego Mendes & Tiago Couto Berriel, "undated". "Central Bank Balance Sheet, Liquidity Trap, and Quantitative Easing," Textos para discussão 638, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  8. Berriel Tiago C & Bhattarai Saroj, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Central Bank Balance Sheet Concerns," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-33, January.
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