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Fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Cavallo
  • Marco Del Negro
  • W. Scott Frame
  • Jamie Grasing
  • Benjamin A. Malin
  • Carlo Rosa

Abstract

The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 percent to under 5 percent. Further reducing longer-run reserve balances from $1 trillion to precrisis levels has little effect on the likelihood of net losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Cavallo & Marco Del Negro & W. Scott Frame & Jamie Grasing & Benjamin A. Malin & Carlo Rosa, 2018. "Fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization," Staff Reports 833, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:833
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sayuri Shirai & Eric Alexander Sugandi, 2019. "Cross-Border Portfolio Investment and Financial Markets Development in the Asia and Pacific Region," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(5), pages 14-33, May.
    2. Sayuri Shirai & Eric Alexander Sugandi, 2018. "Cross- Border Portfolio Investment and Financial Integration in Asia and the Pacific Region," Working Papers id:12817, eSocialSciences.
    3. Hess Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilan & Wei Zheng, 2019. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2018. "Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," Working Papers 2018/10, Czech National Bank.
    5. Joerg Bibow, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policies and Central Bank Profits: Seigniorage as Fiscal Revenue in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_916, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Shirai, Sayuri & Sugandi, Eric, 2018. "Cross-Border Portfolio Investment and Financial Integration in Asia and the Pacific Region," ADBI Working Papers 841, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Jörg Bibow, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies and central bank profits," IMK Studies 62-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank balance sheets; monetary policy; remittances;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other

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