The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions
Recently a market in options based on CPI inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these pdfs respond to news announcements, and find that the implied odds of deflation are sensitive to certain macroeconomic news releases. We compare the option-implied probability densities with those obtained by time series methods, and use this information to construct empirical pricing kernels. The options-implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme inflation outcomes (either deflation or high inflation) than do their time series counterparts. This yields a U-shaped empirical pricing kernel, with investors having high marginal utility in states of the world characterized by either deflation or high inflation.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 110, no. 3, pp. 696-711.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010.
"Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle,"
NBER Working Papers
16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hanno Lustig, 2011. "Why Does the Treasury Issue TIPS? The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," 2011 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Yasuhiro Omori & Siddhartha Chib & Neil Shephard & Jouchi Nakajima, 2004.
"Stochastic volatility with leverage: fast likelihood inference,"
2004-W19, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Yasuhiro Omori & Siddhartha Chib & Neil Shephard & Jouchi Nakajima, 2004. "Stochastic Volatility with Leverage: Fast Likelihood Inference," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-297, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Neil Shephard & Yashurio Omori, 2004. "Stochastic volatility with leverage: fast likelihood inference," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-16, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011.
"Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis,"
NBER Working Papers
16903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 139-158, December.
- Ray C. Fair, 2000.
"Events that Shook the Market,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm149, Yale School of Management.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long-Term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," NBER Working Papers 17154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18195. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.