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The impact of liquidity on inflation-linked bonds: A hypothetical indexed bonds approach

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  • Auckenthaler, Julia
  • Kupfer, Alexander
  • Sendlhofer, Rupert

Abstract

Sovereigns mainly issue inflation-linked bonds (ILB) in order to save money. More than 15 years’ experience with this financial instrument in the United States has led to the conclusion that these bonds are characterized by low liquidity issues. Recently, various papers have started to analyze the impact of liquidity on ILB yields. This paper develops a new strategy for estimating the liquidity premium based on Campbell and Shiller's (1996) hypothetical ILB yields. We find significant effects of ILB-specific liquidity measures for the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada. Based on these findings, we derive the liquidity premium in ILB yields, liquidity-adjusted estimates for the break-even inflation rate and the inflation risk premium. In the United States, for instance, the average of the liquidity premium is 0.56%-points, and the average liquidity-adjusted break-even inflation rate and inflation risk premium amount to 2.67%-points and 0.22%-points, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Auckenthaler, Julia & Kupfer, Alexander & Sendlhofer, Rupert, 2015. "The impact of liquidity on inflation-linked bonds: A hypothetical indexed bonds approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 139-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:32:y:2015:i:c:p:139-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2015.02.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ed Westerhout & Ona Ciocyte, 2017. "The role of inflation-linked bonds," CPB Discussion Paper 344, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Discussion Paper 2017-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Béatrice Séverac & José S. Fonseca, 2021. "Relative pricing of French Treasury inflation-linked and nominal bonds: an empirical approach using arbitrage strategies," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, September.
    4. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Other publications TiSEM 08878bbd-e76e-4216-bee9-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Ed Westerhout & Ona Ciocyte, 2017. "The role of inflation-linked bonds," CPB Discussion Paper 344.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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