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Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets

  • John Campbell
  • Robert Shiller
  • Luis Viceira

This paper explores the history of inflation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990's until 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the ?financial crisis of 2008. Break even inflation rates, calculated from inflation-indexed and nominal government bond yields, stabilized u

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File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2587
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Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number amz2587.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:amz2587
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/
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  1. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2008. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," NBER Working Papers 13806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Luis Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
  4. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  6. Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2007. "Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 13108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 15014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 4676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
  10. Marie Briere & Ombretta Signori, 2007. "Do Inflation-Linked Bonds Still Diversify?," Working Papers CEB 07-029.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/8644 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. David G. Barr & John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices," NBER Working Papers 5821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bansal, Ravi & Khatchatrian, Varoujan & Yaron, Amir, 2005. "Interpretable asset markets?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 531-560, April.
  14. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Understanding Risk and Return," NBER Working Papers 4554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, 04.
  16. Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  18. Christian Gollier, 2005. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 1375, CESifo Group Munich.
  19. Campbell, John & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Scholarly Articles 3122489, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  20. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  21. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  22. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  23. Michael J. Fleming & Neel Krishnan, 2012. "The microstructure of the TIPS market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 27-45.
  24. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
  25. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chan & Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 8566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Jean-Luc Vila & Dimitri Vayanos, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp641, Financial Markets Group.
  28. Wachter, Jessica A., 2003. "Risk aversion and allocation to long-term bonds," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 325-333, October.
  29. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, March.
  30. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Campbell, John Y, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803, November.
  32. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
  33. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  34. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  35. Luis M. Viceira & Adi Sunderam & John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  36. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
  38. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  39. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 155-208 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Jennifer Roush & William Dudley & Michelle Steinberg Ezer, 2008. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Staff Reports 353, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  41. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 1998. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 6611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Meredith J. Beechey & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  43. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
  44. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Paper 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  45. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
  46. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, 06.
  47. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
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