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Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Carolin E. Pflueger

    (Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163)

  • Luis M. Viceira

    (Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163
    National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138)

Abstract

This review empirically analyzes the expectations hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the United States and in the United Kingdom. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds, and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the EH in nominal bonds. This rejection implies that the risk premium on both real and nominal bonds varies predictably over time. We also find strong evidence that the spread between the nominal and the real bond risk premium, or the breakeven inflation risk premium, also varies over time. We argue that the time variation in real bond risk premia most likely reflects both a changing real interest rate risk premium and a changing liquidity risk premium, and that the variability in the nominal bond risk premia reflects a changing inflation risk premium. We estimate significant time series variability in the magnitude and sign of bond risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 139-158, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:3:y:2011:p:139-158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
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    3. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    4. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
    5. Martin D. D. Evans, 2003. "Real risk, inflation risk, and the term structure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 345-389, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Auckenthaler, Julia & Kupfer, Alexander & Sendlhofer, Rupert, 2015. "The impact of liquidity on inflation-linked bonds: A hypothetical indexed bonds approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 139-154.
    2. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    3. Francisco Palomino & Alex Hsu, 2013. "What do Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy tell us about the Real Yield Curve?," 2013 Meeting Papers 50, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Cartea, Álvaro & Saúl, Jonatan & Toro, Juan, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-740.
    5. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    6. Arunima Sinha, 2016. "Learning and the Yield Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 513-547, March.
    7. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Weining Wang, "undated". "Inflation Co-movement across Countries in Multi-maturity Term Structure: An Arbitrage-Free Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2018. "Residual Inflation Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5289-5314, November.
    9. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    10. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2020. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Magdalena Grothe & Aidan Meyler, 2018. "Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 171-188, January.
    12. Driessen, Joost & Nijman, Theodore E. & Simon, Zorka, 2022. "A simple approach to estimate long-term interest rates," SAFE Working Paper Series 238, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2022.
    13. Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    14. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    15. Driessen, Joost & Nijman, Theo E. & Simon, Zorka, 2017. "The missing piece of the puzzle: Liquidity premiums in inflation-indexed markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 183, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    16. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Weining Wang, 2022. "The common and specific components of inflation expectations across European countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 553-580, February.
    17. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TIPS; breakeven inflation; return predictability; bond risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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