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The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Wright

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Yuriy Kitsul

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

Recently a market in options based on CPI inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these pdfs respond to news announcments, and ÃÂfind that the implied odds of deflation are sensitive to certain macroeconomic news releases. We compare the option-implied probability densities with those obtained by time series methods, and use this information to construct empirical pricing kernels. The options-implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme inflation outcomes (either deflation or high inflation) than do their time series counterparts. This yields a U-shaped empirical pricing kernel, with investors having high marginal utility in states of the world characterized by either deflation or high inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Wright & Yuriy Kitsul, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," 2012 Meeting Papers 174, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2002. "Events That Shook the Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October.
    3. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long-Term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," NBER Working Papers 17154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    6. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    7. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:440-457 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    3. Matthew Raskin, 2013. "The effects of the Federal Reserve's date-based forward guidance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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