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Stochastic volatility with leverage: fast likelihood inference

  • Yasuhiro Omori

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Siddhartha Chib

    (Washington University)

  • Neil Shephard

    ()

    (Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK)

  • Jouchi Nakajima

    (University of Tokyo)

Kim, Shephard and Chib (1998) provided a Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models based on a very fast and reliable Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Their method ruled out the leverage effect, which limited its scope for applications. Despite this, their basic method has been extensively used in financial economics literature and more recently in macroeconometrics. In this paper we show how to overcome the limitation of this analysis so that the essence of the Kim, Shephard and Chib (1998) can be used to deal with the leverage effect, greatly extending the applicability of this method. Several illustrative examples are provided.

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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2004-W19.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 22 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0419
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Shephard, Neil, 2006. "Impact of jumps on returns and realised variances: econometric analysis of time-deformed Levy processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 217-252.
  2. Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-58, CIRANO.
  3. Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2," Discussion Paper 1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
  5. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
  6. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-93, July.
  7. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Time-Changed Levy Processes and Option Pricing," Finance 0207011, EconWPA.
  8. Ronald J. Mahieu & Peter C. Schotman, 1998. "An empirical application of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 333-360.
  9. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  10. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  11. Chib, Siddhartha, 2001. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: computation and inference," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 57, pages 3569-3649 Elsevier.
  12. Andrew Harvey & Esther Ruiz & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 247-264.
  13. Jun Yu, 2004. "On Leverage in a Stochastic Volatility Model," Working Papers 13-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  14. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, June.
  15. Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
  16. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  17. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
  18. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
  19. Harvey, Andrew C & Shephard, Neil, 1996. "Estimation of an Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model for Asset Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 429-34, October.
  20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1392 is not listed on IDEAS
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