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Prices and Inflation when Government Bonds are Net Wealth

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  • Hagedorn, Marcus

Abstract

In this paper I show that models in which government bonds are net wealth - that is, their value exceeds that of tax liabilities (Barro, 1974) - offer a new perspective on several issues in monetary economics. First and foremost, prices and inflation are jointly and uniquely determined by fiscal and monetary policy. In contrast to the conventional view, the long-run inflation rate here is, in the absence of output growth, and even when monetary policy operates an interest rate rule with a different inflation target, equal to the growth rate of nominal fiscal variables, which are controlled by fiscal policy. This novel theory also offers a different perspective on the fiscal and monetary transmission mechanism, policies at the zero-lower bound, U.S. inflation history, recent attempts to stimulate inflation in the Euro area and several puzzles which arise in New Keyensian models during a liquidity trap. To derive my findings, I first use a reduced form approach in which households derive utility from holding bonds. I prove how and for which policy rules the price level is globally determinate, then showing that the reduced form results carry over to a Bewley-Imrohoroglu-Huggett-Aiyagari heterogenous agent incomplete markets model.

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  • Hagedorn, Marcus, 2018. "Prices and Inflation when Government Bonds are Net Wealth," CEPR Discussion Papers 12769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12769
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    Cited by:

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    3. Hagedorn, Marcus & Luo, Jinfeng & Manovskii, Iourii & Mitman, Kurt, 2019. "Forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-23.
    4. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    5. Guillermo Santos, 2022. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with preference over safe assets," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2021. "Monetary Policy over the Lifecycle," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    7. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    8. Kabaca, Serdar & Maas, Renske & Mavromatis, Kostas & Priftis, Romanos, 2023. "Optimal quantitative easing in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2022. "Why Aging Induces Deflation and Secular Stagnation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2022-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Diba, Behzad & Loisel, Olivier, 2021. "Pegging the interest rate on bank reserves: A resolution of New Keynesian puzzles and paradoxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 230-244.
    11. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2021. "Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 197-215, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price level determinacy; Ricardian equivalence; Incomplete markets; inflation; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Policy coordination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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