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Money and Prices Under Uncertainty

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  • Tomoyuki Nakajima
  • Herakles Polemarchakis

Abstract

We study whether monetary economies display nominal indeterminacy: equivalently, whether monetary policy determines the path of prices under uncertainty. In a simple, stochastic, cash-in-advance economy, we find that indeterminacy arises and is characterized by the initial price level and a probability measure associated with state-contingent nominal bonds: equivalently, monetary policy determines an average, but not the distribution of inflation across realizations of uncertainty. The result does not derive from the stability of the deterministic steady state and is not affected essentially by price stickiness. Nominal indeterminacy may affect real allocations in cases we identify. Our characterization applies to stochastic monetary models in general, and it permits a unified treatment of the determinants of paths of inflation. Copyright 2005, Wiley-Blackwell.

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  • Tomoyuki Nakajima & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2005. "Money and Prices Under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 223-246.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:1:p:223-246
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/0034-6527.00330
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Reis, 2019. "Central Banks Going Long," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 3, pages 043-081, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, 2013. "Frequency of trade and the determinacy of equilibrium in economies of overlapping generations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 85-100, March.
    3. Adão, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2014. "Short and long interest rate targets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 95-107.
    4. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, January.
    5. McMahon, Michael & Peiris, M. Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2018. "Perils of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 92-114.
    6. M. Peiris & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2015. "Collateral and the efficiency of monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(3), pages 579-603, August.
    7. Bai, Jinhui H. & Schwarz, Ingolf, 2006. "Monetary equilibria in a cash-in-advance economy with incomplete financial markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 422-451, August.
    8. Tomoyuki Nakajima & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2002. "Monetary Equilibria with Monopolistic Competition and Sticky Prices," Working Papers 2002-25, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    9. BLOISE, Gaetano & DRÈZE, Jacques & POLEMARCHAKIS, Heracles, 2002. "Money and indeterminacy over an infinite horizon," CORE Discussion Papers 2002021, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    10. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Horta Correia & Pedro Teles, 2004. "Monetary Policy with State Contingent Interest Rates," Working Papers w200418, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 2004. "Monetary policy with single instrument feedback rules," Working Paper Series WP-04-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. C. A. Goodhart & M. U. Peiris & D. P. Tsomocos, 2013. "Global Imbalances and Taxing Capital Flows," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 13-44, June.
    13. Bos, A.M. & Peeters, R.J.A.P. & Pot, E.A., 2012. "Competition versus collusion: the impact of consumer inertia," Research Memorandum 046, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    14. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.),Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    15. Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2014. "Term structure and forward guidance as instruments of monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(1), pages 1-32, May.
    16. Kokonas, Nikolaos, 2016. "Nominal rigidities equilibria in a non-Ricardian economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 108-119.
    17. Herakles Polemarchakis, 2015. "Markets and Efficiency," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 150-166, June.
    18. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2014. "Anchoring expectations of inflation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-105.
    19. Eagle, David M, 2012. "Liquidity Traps and the Price (In)Determinacy of Monetary Rules," MPRA Paper 42416, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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