IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/3824.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money, Output and Prices: Evidence from A New Monetary Aggregate

Author

Listed:
  • Julio J. Rotemberg
  • John C. Driscoll
  • James M. Poterba

Abstract

This paper develops a new utility-based monetary aggregate which we label the currency equivalent aggregate. This aggregate equals the stock of currency that would be required for households to obtain the same liquidity services that they get from their entire collection of monetary assets. We compare the ability of the new aggregate and conventional aggregates, such as Ml and M2, and other indicators of monetary policy to forecast real activity. The CE aggregate has more predictive power for output and prices than standard aggregates, and the time path of the estimated output response is more consistent with broad classes of theoretical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio J. Rotemberg & John C. Driscoll & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Money, Output and Prices: Evidence from A New Monetary Aggregate," NBER Working Papers 3824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3824
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3824.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    3. Mark Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard & Anil Kashyap, 1991. "Interest Rate Spreads, Credit Constraints, and Investment Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 11-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1990. "Why does money affect output? A survey," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 779-835, Elsevier.
    5. Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "The Empirical Relationship Between Money, Prices, and Income Revisited," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Money And The Economy, chapter 3, pages 57-71, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
    7. William A. Barnett & Edward K. Offenbacher & Paul A. Spindt, 2000. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 360-388, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    9. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
    10. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1984. "A Monetary Equilibrium Model with Transactions Costs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 40-58, February.
    11. McCallum, Bennett T., 1984. "On low-frequency estimates of long-run relationships in macroeconomics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-14, July.
    12. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    13. Spindt, Paul A, 1985. "Money Is What Money Does: Monetary Aggregation and the Equation of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 175-204, February.
    14. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-880, December.
    15. Kormendi, Roger C & Meguire, Philip G, 1984. "Cross-Regime Evidence of Macroeconomic Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 875-908, October.
    16. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    17. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-380, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    2. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
    4. Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
    5. Cole, Harold L. & Ohanian, Lee E., 2002. "Shrinking money: the demand for money and the nonneutrality of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 653-686, May.
    6. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2002. "Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates with Endogenously Segmented Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-112, February.
    7. Enders, Zeno, 2010. "Heterogeneous consumers, segmented asset markets, and the effects of monetary policy," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 08/2010, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    8. Cook, David, 1999. "The liquidity effect and money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 377-390, April.
    9. Ryan S. Mattson & Philippe de Peretti, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Real Divisia Money in Persistence-Robust Econometric Models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00984827, HAL.
    10. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 577-592, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Driscoll, John C., 2004. "Does bank lending affect output? Evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 451-471, April.
    12. Dave Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2004. "Labour markets, liquidity, and monetary policy regimes," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 392-420, May.
    13. Ramey, Valerie, 1993. "How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-45, December.
    14. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," NBER Working Papers 9355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ana Inés Arbiza, 2018. "¿Es estable la demanda de dinero? Análisis del caso Uruguayo," Documentos de trabajo 2018009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    16. Yulei Peng & Anastasia Zervou, 2014. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Equity Premium," Working Papers 20141115_001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    17. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    18. Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2005. "Money and Prices in Models of Bounded Rationality in High Inflation Economies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 452-479, April.
    19. William Barnett, 2013. "Friedman and Divisia Monetary Measures," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201312, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    20. Stephen D. Williamson, 2006. "Search, Limited Participation, And Monetary Policy ," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(1), pages 107-128, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3824. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.