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Labour Markets, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy Regimes

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Listed author(s):
  • David Andolfatto
  • Scott Hendry
  • Kevin Moran

Abstract

We develop an equilibrium model of the monetary policy transmission mechanism that highlights information frictions in the market for money and search frictions in the labour market. The information friction increases the persistence in the response of interest rates following monetary policy regime shifts. This occurs because agents have incomplete information about the nature of the shifts and optimally update their inflation forecasts using an `adaptive' expectations rule. The search friction transmits the interest rate movements to the labour market by affecting job creation activities; together, the two frictions imply that unemployment reacts very gradually to monetary policy shocks.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Staff Working Papers with number 02-32.

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Length: 50 pages Abstract: We develop an equilibrium model of the monetary policy transmission mechanism that highlights information frictions in the market for money and search frictions in the market for labour. A change in monetary policy regime, modelled here as an exogenous reduction in the long-run target for the money-growth rate, results in a large and persistent increase in the interest rate owing to a persistent shortfall in liquidity. This persistent liquidity effect occurs because of the limited information that individuals have concerning the nature of the shock, which implies that individuals optimally update their inflation forecasts using an adaptive expectations rule. The subsequent period of high interest rates curtails job-creation activities in the business sector, making it more difficult for the unemployed to find suitable job matches; employment bottoms out two to three quarters after the shock. In the long run, however, employment rises above its initial level, primarily because of the lower long-run interest rates associated with a tight-money regime.
Date of creation: 2002
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:02-32
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Keywords: Transmission of monetary policy; Uncertainty and monetary policy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
  • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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  1. Shi, Shouyong, 1998. "Search for a Monetary Propagation Mechanism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 314-352, August.
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  3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
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  10. Andolfatto, David & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2002. "Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 02-30, Bank of Canada.
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  18. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  19. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-353, May.
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  23. Robert L. Hetzel, 1998. "Arthur Burns and inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 21-44.
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Cited by:

  1. Andolfatto, David & Hendry, Scott & Moran, Kevin, 2008. "Are inflation expectations rational?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 406-422, March.
  2. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
  3. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
  4. Robert Amano & Scott Hendry, 2003. "Inflation persistence and costly market share adjustment: a preliminary analysis," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 134-146 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
  6. Sylvain Dessy & Safa Ragued, 2013. "Whither the Progressive Tax?," Cahiers de recherche 1340, CIRPEE.

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